China's butadiene exports have experienced significant growth in recent years, particularly in 2021 and 2024. According to Sublime China Information (SCI), this surge is primarily driven by supply constraints in key regions, including the US and Southeast Asia.

Export Volume and Price Trends

In 2021, China's butadiene exports reached a historic high due to a supply gap in the US market. According to SCI, this trend continued in 2024 as reduced deep-sea cargo shipments and production challenges in Southeast Asia further tightened global supplies. From January to September 2024, China's total butadiene exports surged by 111 percent year-over-year to approximately 120.8 kilo tonnes.

The average export price of butadiene has fluctuated over the past five years. In 2023, weak demand in South Korea and competition from deep-sea cargoes led to a significant decline in export prices. However, in 2024, supply shortages from key regions drove prices to a five-year high. As of September 2024, the average export price reached USD 1,391 per metric ton, a 35 percent month-over-month increase, added SCI.

Export Destinations and Regional Dynamics

The majority of China's butadiene exports are directed to South Korea and Taiwan. In 2024, South Korea accounted for 74 percent of total exports, a significant increase from the previous year. This surge was driven by factors such as limited domestic supply and increased demand for spot butadiene.

While China's butadiene exports have been strong, the long-term potential for significant growth in deep-sea exports remains limited due to established supply chains and regional demand dynamics. Most of China's exports are currently concentrated in Northeast Asia, with limited opportunities for expansion into other regions.

Future Outlook

SCI added that 2025 China's butadiene supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and export volumes may increase further. However, the sustained growth of exports will depend on various factors, including downstream demand in key markets, the availability of deep-sea cargoes, and the development of new production capacities in other regions.

Despite these uncertainties, China's butadiene industry is well-positioned to capitalize on global supply-demand imbalances and continue to play a significant role in the global market.

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It is important to note that any definitive agreements will depend entirely on the study's outcomes and subsequent negotiations. At this stage, there is no guarantee that the evaluation will lead to binding commitments or that the proposed transaction will ultimately materialise.

Fredrik Aaben, CEO, Scandinavian Enviro Systems, said, “We continue to see strong international interest in Enviro’s technology, and this letter of intent is yet another proof of this.”

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