The state of Kerala in southern India still accounts for over 70% of the tappable area and 75% of the national rubber production in India. Given the agro-climatic advantage, quality of human resources cultivating rubber and productivity of rubber, Kerala is expected to retain its prime position in Natural Rubber production in the near future. Though the area under rubber cultivation is increasing in the non- traditional regions, which has got cost advantages over the traditional region, it has inherent climatic disadvantages. A cost-benefit analysis by RRII revealed higher BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) for Kerala than in the non-traditional regions due to its higher productivity which offsets the higher cost in the state to some extent. So, maintaining the production sector in Kerala in good health is key to ensuring sufficient domestic production of rubber in the coming decades as envisaged in the National Rubber Policy (NRP) of India.

The NRP envisages sourcing 70% of India’s requirements of natural rubber through domestic production. This also gains importance as India has once again started thinking in the direction of self-sufficiency through its Atma Nirbhar Bharat initiative and the current domestic production of Natural Rubber accounts for just over 50% of the national requirement.

But the days of the smallholding sector of Kerala, which has scripted the success of rubber production in India from the 1980s onwards, seems to be over and running out of steam. The sector is in deep crisis as it is confronted with issues like uneconomic size of holdings, low price of natural rubber and scarcity of tappers. This paper analyses the persisting issue of scarcity of rubber tappers in the sector.

Widening demand-supply gap

The first census of rubber tappers conducted by Rubber Board in 2013 enumerated 77,207 tappers in the smallholdings sector in Kerala. The estimated tappers requirement to tap the existing tappable area of 4,56,000 ha in Kerala in the smallholdings sector under different systems of tapping is presented in Table 1.

The census revealed that 13.7 per cent (10,577) tappers were under S/2 d1, 81.2 per cent (62,692) were under S/2 d2, 4.7 per cent (3629) under S/2 d3 and 0.4% (309) under various other low frequency tapping (LFT) systems in the smallholdings sector. By assuming a stand of 400 trees per tapping block, these tappers could tap only 1,49,011 ha regularly. This shows there exists huge demand-supply gap of tappers in the sector, resulting in large number of holdings either left untapped or tapped irregularly.  

Inherent structural bottlenecks

In the general agricultural sector of Kerala, helpers of masons in the rural construction sector are considered to be the most immediate group with whom agricultural labourers identify or that these segments of rural labour markets interact during short-term fluctuations in the supply and demand. Similarly, supply of tappers at a given point of time is determined to a great extent by the wage income of tappers and the wage rates prevailing in the sectors closely interacted by the tappers in the smallholdings sector. Lower wage income of tappers in relation to wage of agricultural labour and semi-skilled workers was reported as the main reason for aversion of younger generation to tapping job. Trends in the wage rate of tappers in the smallholdings sector of Kerala are presented in Table 2.

 

 

 

 

Based on the structural breaks observed in the wage rate of rubber tappers since 1980, the entire period was sub-divided into five. During the entire time period, except for the period 2014 to 17, the wage rate of tappers has been increasing in real terms. The highest growth rate in nominal and real wages was observed during 2005 to 2013. A plateau in the growth of nominal wage rate was observed after 2013 and hence the real wage rate showed a decline (Fig 1). 

Though wage rate of tappers has been showing growth in nominal and real terms till 2013, the sector has been facing severe scarcity of tappers. This shows that increasing wage rate has not succeeded in attracting sufficient tappers into the sector. Hence, wage share, which is a measure of distribution of income between the capital and labour, was computed to know the distribution of income between the farmers and tappers in the sector.  Trends in wage share of rubber tappers in nominal and real terms are presented in Table 3.

 

The wage share of tappers has increased in the last one decade both in nominal and real terms. Though wage rate of tappers has declined in real terms in the last few years under analysis (Fig 1), wage share has been increasing in the smallholdings sector. Increasing wage share in the sector indicated better distribution of income among the capital and labour. 

  Nevertheless, the wage rate of tappers, both in nominal and real terms, has been increasing (except for the past a few years) and the sector exhibited an increasing wage share in real terms, the sector failed to attract sufficient tappers, leading to severe scarcity. This warrants for deeper analysis to understand the issue. Hence, a comparison of estimated wage incomes of rubber tappers with agricultural labourers and helpers of masons in the construction sector was done and presented in Table 4.

 

 

The estimated annual wage income of rubber tappers in the smallholdings sector of Kerala was found to be 44 per cent and 59 per cent less than their counterparts in the general agriculture and construction sectors respectively. This makes the sector less attractive for the potential new entrants, which is ultimately reflected in tappers supply. Due to division and fragmentation of rubber holdings, the average size of holdings has come down and number of trees available for tapping was only 286 trees per tapping day under single grower dependence system and 75 per cent of tappers in the sector were engaged in the single grower dependence system.

In piece rate-based wage payment system, number of trees tapped per day and number of tapping days per year determines the annual wage income of tappers. Thus, in the present scenario, the smallholdings are incapable of giving more tapping task to the tappers to enhance their wage income. Hence, prevalence of single grower dependence, small size of holdings, lesser number of trees available for tapping per tapping day and the piece rate-based wage payment are the bottlenecks in enhancing wage income of tappers. But, in their effort to retain experienced tappers in the milieu of tappers scarcity, the farmers were forced to follow the labour intensive high frequency tapping systems with more tapping days, though it has implications on net farm income.

Even though the tapping wage rate and wage share has been increasing in real terms, the tappers are expected to demand a hike in the wage rate as the wage income earned by them is substantially lower than their counterparts in other rural employment sectors. In the present scenario, to make wage income of tappers on par with that of agricultural labourers and helpers in the construction sector, a hike of 79 per cent and 143 per cent respectively is required in tapping wage rate (Table 5).

 

 

But, an increase of this magnitude in the wage rate is not feasible as further hike in the wage rate would seriously affect sustainability of rubber cultivation as with the present cost of cultivation and price of rubber, the farm income is declining in real terms (Fig. 2) and wage share is increasing (Table 3).

 

Limited options

Since labour is becoming costlier and farm income has been declining in real terms due to uncertain prices, the options available with smallholdings are either to shift to other profitable crops or adopt cost saving technologies including mechanization as tapping accounts for more than 80 per cent of the labour requirement in mature rubber plantations. Generally, mechanisation is done as a labour saving process that occurs due to the increasing scarcity of labour most often reflected in a rising wage rate. But, since the scope for mechanisation in rubber tapping is limited and adoption of cost saving low frequency tapping (LFT) is constrained by the small size of holdings, farmers may either prefer to keep their plantations untapped or shift to other profitable crops. At present, as per Rubber Board data, around 30 per cent of the mature plantations are left untapped in the smallholdings. This will have serious implications on the rubber smallholdings sector as majority of the farmers are small and marginal with average size of holdings of less than 0.5 ha. A study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, found that the net operating income from an acre of rubber cultivation is only Rs. 16,732 in Kottayam and Rs. 19,681 in Thiruvananthapuram, which is not adequate to induce the rubber growers to continue with rubber cultivation. It was also observed that the recorded net income of those with holding size below 2 ha and depending only on rubber cultivation for their livelihood will be below the poverty line.

Thus, declining profitability is expected to dissuade small growers in Kerala from rubber cultivation and encourage them to explore alternatives. This will have far reaching consequences in the sector as the share of part time farmers are already high and a recent survey by the Economics Division, RRII revealed that for 69 per cent of farmers in Central Kerala, income from rubber accounted for less than 50 per cent of the total household income.     

Collapse of the smallholder’s rubber sector in Kerala will have serious impact on natural rubber production in India as the state contributes nearly 78 per cent of total natural rubber produced in the country and the smallholdings sector accounts for nearly 90 per cent of area and production in Kerala.   

Collectivism to circumvent the structural bottlenecks

Earlier studies have suggested methods like crop sharing and production incentives with annual compensatory allowances as alternatives to overcome the hurdles inflicted by the piece rate-based wage payment system and low tapping task in enhancing wage income of tappers to attract more tappers into the sector. But, large scale adoptions of these propositions were not reported in Kerala. Crop sharing is not sustainable in the long run as the return to capital is marginal and hence would deter large scale adoption by the small and marginal farmers. Production incentives to match the wage income of tappers to that of labourers in the general agricultural sector and helpers in the construction sector (Table 4 and 5) would render rubber cultivation uneconomical due to high cost of production in the smallholdings, which has long lost its economies of scale.

Prevalence of single grower dependence, small size of holdings and lesser number of trees available for tapping per tapping day being the critical bottlenecks in enhancing wage income of tappers and attract new tappers into the sector, any new system adopted should be capable of negotiating these bottlenecks efficiently to ensure tappers flow into the sector. Division and fragmentation of holdings aggravates these bottlenecks and render rubber cultivation uneconomical. Thus, as a measure to overcome these bottlenecks, collectivism/co-operative farming is suggested as an alternative. Collectivism would help to circumvent these structural bottlenecks of the smallholdings viz., small size of holdings, lesser number of trees available for tapping and prevalence of single grower dependence of tappers, as in collective farming the factors of production are pooled and the farm is managed as a single unit on co-operative basis. Hence under collectivism tapping task and wage income of tappers could be enhanced considerably. Willing farmers in the smallholdings sector can be bought under different farmer’s co-operatives and the farm can be managed as a single unit by professional managers under the supervision of the elected members.

Collective management of small rubber holdings under co-operative/collective farming would facilitate large scale adoption of cost saving technologies like LFT, as the holding size barrier for its adoption could be overcome by collectivism. Since the farm management decisions are implemented uniformly across the units managed under collectivism, it will have the advantage of economies of scale. Though LFT is recommended as a cost saving strategy in mature plantations to make rubber cultivation profitable, its large-scale adoption is constrained by the small size of holdings in the smallholdings sector.

The first census of rubber tappers by Rubber Board in 2013 recorded its adoption as below 5 per cent in Kerala. By following the LFT (S/2 d7) under collective farming, the tapping task and employment of tappers could be enhanced further (Table 6) and the wage income of tappers could be equated with their counterparts in the rural labour market. Table 6 reveals that with the present tapping wage rate itself, the wage income of tappers could be equated with the income earned by their counterparts in the rural economy under collectivism. In addition to higher wage income, the tappers attached to farmer’s co-operatives would have better access to welfare schemes extended for the tappers by the Rubber Board as the first tappers census observed poor percolation of the welfare schemes among the tappers, since the tappers in the smallholdings were unorganized.   

 

 The proposed collective farming is different from the activities performed by the Rubber Producers Societies (RPS). The present day RPSs are basically involved in technology dissemination, provide different services like subsidized input distribution, collective processing and marketing of NR. A few RPSs and Rubber Board promoted trading companies are organizing tappers under tappers banks to tap holdings which are either untapped or abandoned due to absentee farmers, non-availability of tappers and declining profitability due to price crash. Though tappers attached to the tappers bank under the present system get higher remuneration than their counterparts in the smallholdings (Table 7), this will not ameliorate tappers scarcity and encourage large scale adoption of LFT in the sector, as the bottlenecks discussed earlier remains.

In the proposed collective farming, farmer’s co-operatives are expected to play a major and direct role in rubber production by pooling the factors of production (plantations). The authority to make farm decisions would be vested with the co-operatives rather than individual farmers and the profit shall be shared among the members.

Conclusion

Though wage rate and wage share has been increasing in real terms in the small holdings sector, the wage income of tappers were substantially lower than the wage income of labourers in the general agricultural sector and helpers in the construction sector with whom tappers in the smallholdings relate in the rural labour market. Due to presence of structural bottlenecks as such as smaller size of holdings, lesser number of tress available for tapping, piece rate wage payment system and prevalence of single grower dependence, the sector was incapacitated to augment wage income of the tappers to equate it with that of labourers in other rural sectors. To attract more tappers into the sector by increasing the wage income of tappers by circumventing the structural bottlenecks, collective farming under farmer’s co-operatives following the principles of collectivism is proposed. Collective management of plantations will not only help the tappers to get regular employment, sufficient tapping task and remunerative wage income, it would also have the added advantage of bring down the cost of production of NR and increasing profitability of NR cultivation as it would also facilitate large scale adoption of labour and cost saving technologies for rubber production.

 

Nouryon, a leading supplier of organic peroxides and a developer of organic peroxide solutions, has formally announced the completion of capacity expansion of its organic peroxides manufacturing facility in Ningbo, China.

The company's production capacity for Perkadox 14 and Trigonox 101 organic peroxide products, which are crucial components for altering polymer characteristics and crosslinking rubbers and thermoplastics, has increased to 6,000 tonnes each as a result of this capacity expansion. Furthermore, by improving the qualities of recycled polypropylene (R-PP), these solutions can also allow consumers to employ recycled polymers in applications that were previously exclusive to virgin plastics.

Alain Rynwalt, Senior Vice President – Performance Materials, Nouryon, said, “Nouryon is a world leader in essential ingredients for the polymer industry and this expansion highlights our dedication to supporting our customers’ growth across the entire polymer cycle. Customer interest in improving the properties of recycled polypropylene continues to rise, in line with increased consumer awareness and more stringent regulations.”

Sobers Sethi, Senior Vice President – Emerging Markets and China, Nouryon, said, “Asia Pacific is a key region for Nouryon and our most recent expansion in China strengthens our supply position even more in this growing region. Our customers rely on our existing network of manufacturing facilities and innovative technologies, and we are pleased to build more capacity to meet growing customer demand around the world.”

Trinseo, a speciality materials solutions provider, has signed agreements to supply its polycarbonate technology license as well as all proprietary polycarbonate production equipment in Stade, Germany to Deepak Chem Tech Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Deepak Nitrite Limited, a diversified chemical intermediates company based in Vadodara, Gujarat, India.

The combined deals are worth USD 52.5 million. Subject to significant milestones, the business anticipates receiving around USD 9 million by the end of 2024 and an additional USD 21 million in the first part of 2025. The firm has made the decision to leave Stade, Germany, with this disposal of the production assets.

Frank Bozich, President and Chief Executive Officer, Trinseo, said, “While Trinseo recently announced its decision to exit virgin polycarbonate production, our polycarbonate technology is highly valued and the manufacturing equipment in Stade, Germany, can be utilised in India by Deepak. These are the initial steps of a strategic, collaborative partnership with Deepak, as we explore additional opportunities to leverage our technology portfolio and expand in higher-growth areas such as India.”

China's butadiene exports have experienced significant growth in recent years, particularly in 2021 and 2024. According to Sublime China Information (SCI), this surge is primarily driven by supply constraints in key regions, including the US and Southeast Asia.

Export Volume and Price Trends

In 2021, China's butadiene exports reached a historic high due to a supply gap in the US market. According to SCI, this trend continued in 2024 as reduced deep-sea cargo shipments and production challenges in Southeast Asia further tightened global supplies. From January to September 2024, China's total butadiene exports surged by 111 percent year-over-year to approximately 120.8 kilo tonnes.

The average export price of butadiene has fluctuated over the past five years. In 2023, weak demand in South Korea and competition from deep-sea cargoes led to a significant decline in export prices. However, in 2024, supply shortages from key regions drove prices to a five-year high. As of September 2024, the average export price reached USD 1,391 per metric ton, a 35 percent month-over-month increase, added SCI.

Export Destinations and Regional Dynamics

The majority of China's butadiene exports are directed to South Korea and Taiwan. In 2024, South Korea accounted for 74 percent of total exports, a significant increase from the previous year. This surge was driven by factors such as limited domestic supply and increased demand for spot butadiene.

While China's butadiene exports have been strong, the long-term potential for significant growth in deep-sea exports remains limited due to established supply chains and regional demand dynamics. Most of China's exports are currently concentrated in Northeast Asia, with limited opportunities for expansion into other regions.

Future Outlook

SCI added that 2025 China's butadiene supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and export volumes may increase further. However, the sustained growth of exports will depend on various factors, including downstream demand in key markets, the availability of deep-sea cargoes, and the development of new production capacities in other regions.

Despite these uncertainties, China's butadiene industry is well-positioned to capitalize on global supply-demand imbalances and continue to play a significant role in the global market.

Cabot Corporation, a global speciality chemicals and performance materials company, has announced through an official statement that it will raise prices globally for carbon black products sold by its speciality carbons business. The price rise will be global and will come into effect for all shipments on or after 1 December 2024, or as contracts allow.

The company claims that the price rise is necessary owing to the impact of inflation on labour, maintenance and other production activities, as well as supply chain-related expenditures. The price increase will vary depending on the product and region.

The statement further elaborates that these price adjustments will help the company remain a dependable, long-term provider of high-quality products and services to its consumers. Cabot also underlined its commitment to guaranteeing supply security and the best service standards for its clients, as well as providing technological and process improvements and moving forward with its environmental goals.