First a dissection of the tyre market in four different sectors – one that was severely affected and three that have been the mainstay of resilience.

Cowrie Shells of Trade

Initially, Cowrie shells were used as currency for trading right after the barter age. Cowrie shells were/ are still used in astrology in many parts of Africa to predict the future. Four cowrie shells held in the hand, the astrologer would then shake the shells while clenching the fist and throw them to the ground. Depending on how many shells turned upside, the astrologer would then tell the future. In my case, three have turned upside and one facing down – an ominous sign.

(Cowrie Shell number 1) The Motorcycle  Market

Also known as ‘bodabodas’, motorcycles are divided into the mid-premium, premium and commuter motorcycles. The rise in numbers in pre-pandemic times and presently is because of their ability to move efficiently in urban and rural areas, especially where the road conditions are poor. 

 Between 2011 and 2019, the number of motorcycles grew 233 percent from 500,000 to 1.7 Million. The average annual demand for motorcycles is 200,000 units – a demand that is fuelled by a relatively affluent rural population with a drive for personal mobility (Source: Kenya Automotive Sector Profile – 60 years Anniversary edition). Motorcycle tyres sales have not lagged behind in the regard, with most of the imports coming from India and China. Often these tyres are not recyclable.

(Cowrie Shell number 2) Commercial Market Truck

The shift in rules and regulations surrounding travel has come with uncertainty and border closures that were aimed at stopping the spread of the disease. Closure of some truck tyre producing plants and ensuring that the overseas parent markets demands were met before exports meant that there was a shortage in this sector. The sector has been supported by the Light Commercial Vehicle tyres from the 7.00-16, 7.50R16, 9.5R17.5, 265/70R19.5 and, more recently, 255/70R22.5 (FI engines). These vehicles are not under the spotlight of weigh-bridge restrictions as compared to their bigger rig 22 and above wheeler cousins and hence have become a vehicle of choice of up-coming and existing transporters wanting to squeeze the payload shilling to a longer mile. Even in the absence of verifiable date or research papers, it is estimated that commercial driving has dropped by about 20 percent.

(Cowrie Shell number 3) Agricultural Tyres

The sector that continues on an upturn is one that continues to feed the millions of people every day. Even with a prediction of drought at the end of the year, tractors and farmers on the road continue to grind tyres to ensure that there are products from the farm to fork. The OEM/ replacement/aftermarket sectors are experiencing a rise in demand for efficient and productive agricultural machinery that is driving the agricultural tyre market. It is primarily the technological advancements and expanding population that are propelling the agricultural tyre market. Sameer Africa, the only agricultural tyre manufacturing concern in the country, closed its doors in 2019. While the overall scenario of the market is positive, the demand is hugely dependent on the economic turmoil in the region that invariably affects the farmers’ income and purchase of farm machinery. However, a downturn in farming equipment sales is expected to continue till 2022 as Covid-19 severely impacted the automotive industries.

Changing agricultural machinery design and increasing penetration into new unexplored terrain will require tyres that have stronger rubber compounds. Flotation, forestry, trailer and compound rubber tyres with steel flex wall are now trending in the local agricultural tyre market.

(Cowrie Shell number 4) Passenger and 4x4

Regarding the future impact of personal and business travel, Bill Gates recently noted that we can ask the question “Do I have to go there personally? ” and predicted 50 percent decline for the post Covid-19 world. In addition to that, walking, cycling and motorcycling have gained preference.

In addition to the specifics of the tyre market, various factors continue to plague the East African tyre industry, and they include:

•           Uncertainty that the virus will move into the winter months and the Delta variant. With less than 10 percent of the population now vaccinated in the East African region, it is difficult to say how the disease will pan out. What is certain is that the periods of confinement will continue deep into 2022 (an election year in Kenya).

•           At some point this year, freight costs rose by 300 percent. Tyre sellers had no option but to pass the cost to the consumer. Supply chain disruptions are here to stay mainly because Kenya will be having the general elections next year. Tanzania and Uganda have already had theirs. In such times, many investors hold back on the resources waiting for regime change and the chaos that follow a general election.

Rangoli of Possibilities

Many years ago, I woke up every day to beautiful drawings made on the ground in front of a neighbour’s doorstep. Drawn by a young Indian girl, I later came to learn their meaning. Using multi-colored, ochre, dried rice sand, flour, rocks and petals, beautiful drawings were made on the doorstep as a part of an everyday Hindu household practice – even more so, during the important Hindu ceremonies such as Diwali, Pongal and Tihar (I would urge the reader to view some of these drawings on Google). The Rangoli represents happiness, positivity and liveliness of a household (nation) intended to welcome health and happiness. It is for this reason that I intend to paint here that African Tyre Market Rangoli during this very trying Covid times mostly for therapeutic purposes. 

It is in these Rangolis of possibilities that I would like to offer my predictions and possible solutions:

Prediction no. 1

In East Africa, future urban mobility will not rely on individual car traffic regardless of the propulsion system. The pandemic will cause urban planners to re-think the transport framework policy. Policy makers will nurture the momentum gained to further transform the traffic landscape towards environmentally friendly towns and cities.

Prediction no. 2

In the midst of dwindling and scarce resources, the one that remains unlimited is ‘IDEAS’. E-commerce readiness will be vital in determining the survivability of a business during the Covid-19 pandemic. The level of readiness will determine their continuance and sustainability.

E-commerce readiness can be examined on the basis of Technological readiness / Organisational Readiness and Environmental Readiness. Challenges and constraints thrown our way, such as the Covid-19 proffers, only encourage a business to adopt e-commerce and take it to another level. (Ref. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business)

Suggestions on how to weather the storm

In order to strive, thrive and stay ahead of the pandemic curve, businesses in East Africa have to adopt different business strategies:

•           Tyre business owners and managers must consider going against the previous market stock trends such as Just in Time Management. Maximise coverage, over-order on fast moving items, plan way ahead, order early, sell what your competition can offer you and pro-actively communicate with customers about impending shortage (being upfront and honest)

•           Being constantly in touch with suppliers, strategically allocate stocks, buy out of the normal circles, train front-line staff on up-downsizing-cross sizing and tyre husbandry.

•           Invest in your people in training (preferably online) and keep moral high.

•           With pricing; work around keeping your cost low and don’t raise prices when you can’t supply. This puts you up against a customer.

 What the Cowrie shells on the ground say

I would like to pen-off with the words of Kenya’s finance cabinet secretary, Ukur Yatani Kanacho:

“Last year around this time, you would think that ours was a deserted city. Life is now back to normal, the vibrancy is back. We are quite optimistic. Kenyans have accepted and adopted to the new way of living and we are quite alive to the challenges posed by Covid-19”. (TT)

As part of a strategic effort to increase its presence in the region's premium original equipment (OE) market, Kumho Tire has confirmed its plans to establish its first tyre production facility in Europe by 2027.

The company has shortlisted Poland, Serbia and Portugal as possible locations for the plant, which is projected to need an investment of more than KRW1 trillion (USD 705 million). The decision is closely linked to Kumho’s ambition to strengthen its partnerships with European automakers and was revealed by Kumho Tire CEO during the South Korean premiere of Kumho's new Ecsta Sport tyre line.

Kumho has recently secured OE supply contracts with major brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Volkswagen Group. At the moment, Kumho runs eight tyre production plants in China, Vietnam, South Korea and the US. Its capacity to compete in the premium OE market, however, has come to be perceived as being constrained by the absence of a European production base. Through the benefits of local production, the new facility will improve response to European client requests, save freight costs and shorten delivery times, all of which will strengthen the company's partnerships.

Sentury Tire USA has opened pre-enrolment for its two associate dealer programmes (ADPs), the Delinte HYPERDRIVE Associate Dealer Program and the Landsail Elyte Associate Dealer Program, underscoring the company’s commitment to rewarding dedication and partnership to the Landsail and Delinte brands.

The ADPs, which are customised for each brand and intended to encourage dealers, will formally start on 1 June 2025. Both programmes give dealers access to special benefits, incentives and strong tools to help them expand their businesses. This involves dependable customer service, effective marketing and worthwhile financial incentives to promote dealers' success at every stage.

Beginning in Q3, dealers may earn up to USD three per tyre through the Delinte HYPERDRIVE Associate Dealer Program. Dealers can receive retroactive benefits for purchases completed in Q2 if they register before 1 June. The awards are available for all Delinte PTR, LTR and the new DV3 LMD AS last-mile delivery tyres. For all Landsail PTR and LTR tyres, independent dealers that sign up for the Landsail Elyte Associate Dealer Program can also earn up to USD three per tyre. For customers who sign up by June 1, the new LMD 100 AS last-mile delivery is also eligible for the benefits and will get the same early bird incentive for Q2 2025.

No initial order is necessary. Dealers only need to register to begin making money. According to the monthly programme rewards structure, 48 tyre purchases each month are eligible for a reward of USD one per tyre, 120 tyres are eligible for a reward of USD two per tyre and 240 or more tyres are eligible for a reward of USD three per tyre.

ENSO, a London-based tyre manufacturer engaged in the production of sustainable tyres specially designed for electric vehicles (EVs), has launched its new ENSO Premium range of EV-specific ultra-high-performance (UHP) tyres aimed at drivers of high-performance EVs such as the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y.

Specifically designed for electric passenger vehicles, the ENSO Premium range comes with A/A EU-label ratings for both energy efficiency and wet grip. The tyres are designed to provide safety, increased range and a reduced total cost of ownership. Conventional tyre designs frequently fall short of the special performance needs of electric vehicles, which include greater vehicle weight, regenerative braking and higher torque loads. By lowering tyre wear and rolling resistance, ENSO Premium takes care of these issues.

The company is an authorised provider of replacement tyres for LEVC's electric taxis and has partnered with Uber to install its tyres in high-mileage metropolitan areas. The company now plans to grow throughout Europe and North America, and with ENSO Premium, it is now offering its services to individual EV owners throughout the United Kingdom. According to ENSO, the range offers advantages including longer tyre life and fewer replacements, lower energy usage, fewer charging stops and lower CO₂ emissions and tyre particle pollution.

Gunnlaugur Erlendsson, CEO and Co-Founder, ENSO, said, “We’re plugging a long-standing gap in the tyre market by offering EV drivers a purpose-built, affordable, premium EV tyre alternative that matches the innovation of their EV.”

Kraton Corporation, a leading global sustainable producer of specialty polymers and high-value bio-based products derived from pine wood pulping co-products, has announced a general price hike in North America for its SBS, SIS and HSBC product lines with effect from 1 May 2025.

Following a careful analysis of the effects of recently implemented tariffs, related cost increases and a conclusion that the company cannot independently absorb these repercussions, Kraton is adopting these pricing hikes, according to a company statement. The company further said that it will keep an eye on the scene and reassess these measures promptly in the event that conditions and US import tariffs alter.