As local consumption is limited, the export business plays a vital role in Sri Lanka’s economic growth. However, it is high time for the country to look beyond their traditional products and markets and push industry-friendly policies, infrastructure development and attract foreign investors, and a larger stake is dependent on vision and implementations of strategic plans by Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EBD). Prabhash Subasinghe, Chairman of the Board, said EDB will focus on support existing exporters to bolster their exports, bring new products in the export baskets, look into new export markets, increase capacity building and attracts foreign investment through industry-friendly policies and incentives. Excerpts from an interview

How important is export business for Sri Lanka's overall economy? 

The Export business is an important segment for the sustainable growth of the economy of Sri Lanka and creates many employment opportunities. The export market of Sri Lanka is vast where the traditional exports of tea, rubber and coconut still play a significant role in bringing in export revenue to the country not forgetting the other major exports- apparel, spices and gemstones. Even though Sri Lanka does not produce in abundance the essential items, the country needs but does it in a smaller scale yet going towards few quantities of imports too, which involves outward remittance in foreign currency. Also, the size of the population limits the capacity of firms to achieve economies of large-scale production by solely catering to the local market thereby, export business is very vital for Sri Lanka's overall economy.

What are the country's strengths in the export business?

‘Made in Sri Lanka’ is synonymous worldwide with the values of high quality, reliability, social and environmental accountability. Sri Lankan brands that are increasingly associated with high quality and ethical manufacturing practices have opened up new avenues in the global arena. Ethical brands Sri Lanka apparel goes hand in hand, and this focus on sustainability has proven a worthy investment in the future of the industry. Apparel is one of the world's leading proponents of 'Ethical Business and Manufacturing Practices' for the Global Fashion and Apparel Sourcing Business. It earns its distinction of being among the very few industry bodies that have brought about a transformation in the way businesses are run, with responsibility, conscience and care. 

Value addition and building Sri Lankan brands in the tea industry require a high level of investment and a commitment to quality in product and process. Sri Lanka was also the first to achieve the "Ozone Friendly Tea." World-renowned Sri Lankan tea brands are intensely involved in emphasising sustainable development to become a valuable partner in developing a social, corporate and environmentally responsible product to its consumers.

Young, educated & productive, talented and highly trainable workforce in Sri Lanka proves to be one of the best in the region. Availability of human resources with proficiency in English and ICT knowledge to meet the needs of the present industry demand is a strength of the country.

Exports of services such as ICT, wellness tourism, financial services, construction & other professional services have grown significantly in the last decade. These sectors have proven their ability to diversify their export market destinations.

The availability of natural raw materials in industries such as rubber, spices, especially cinnamon and pepper, coconut, Gems etc play a vital role in the national economy with more significant value addition to the necessary products. 

Why should foreign companies invest in Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka is situated strategically at the crossroads of major shipping routes to South Asia, the Far East and the continents of Europe and America, making the country a convenient port of call for shipping lines and airfreight services. Further, Sri Lanka's proximity to the Indian sub-continent positions the country as a gateway to a market of 1.3 billion people. These factors have combined to generate keen interest in the country's logistics sector, as well as from manufacturers looking for opportunities in the South Asian region. 

Further, Sri Lanka has entered into 28 Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Treaties (BITs) so far, protecting foreign investments within the country. There is a wide range of incentives offered to attract investments which includes; enhanced capital allowances, concessionary corporate income tax across many sectors including SMEs, tax concession for R & D activities, CESS exemptions for the importation of Capital Goods, importation of raw materials & for tourism projects, VAT Exemptions/Deferments & Custom Duty Exemptions for export-related activities and exemptions also offered under Hub Regulation. Besides, as per Strategic Development Projects Act No. 14 of BOI, exemptions are granted for projects which is in the national interest and which is likely to bring economic and social benefit to the country and which is also expected to change the landscape of the country primarily.

Furthermore, the availability of quality natural raw materials, relative ease of doing business, and talented highly trainable workforce in Sri Lanka also play a vital role in attracting the interest of investors to invest in the country.

How do you evaluate the impact of Covid19 on the country's economy, and especially on exports? How are you coping with it?

Global economy is forecasted to contract by 3 % in 2020 sharply, and there is no accurate prediction as to when the effects will reduce. Sri Lanka is no exception to the impact of the pandemic and exports both merchandise and services which stood at US$ 16.14 billion in 2019. In May, Sri Lanka's merchandise exports decreased by 37% to USD 602.4 Mn. In the first 5 months, exports earnings fell by 28.7 % to USD 3456 Mn from the corresponding period of last year. Considering the unprecedented disruption to the global economy and trade due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sri Lanka Export Development Board has reduced its 2020 exports forecast from US $ 18.5 billion to US$10.75 billion by about 42%. As per the revised target, EDB forecasts $ 7.53 billion in merchandise exports and $ 3.21 billion from service exports in 2020.

Despite the gloomy global situation, we are confident that the export sector will be the first to recover, whilst other foreign exchange inflows such as tourism and worker remittances will take time to bounce back in the economic revival post COVID -19.

The EDB officers have been working tirelessly to help the exporters by setting up a helpline to facilitate to assist in the present situation, publishing updates on the EDB website with the government directives through circulars/letters/guidelines etc., liaising and intervening on behalf of the exporters with all the higher authorities , connecting exporters with the foreign missions and ambassadors to find new opportunities, facilitating with curfew passes abiding with health guidelines issued and implemented by the government and communicating news to all Sri Lankans and overseas markets by taking initiatives in publishing various news articles pertaining to export-related services to continue their businesses.

During the early stages of the pandemic, our apparel sector was affected badly. However, we now experience a reasonably positive trend, especially with the manufacturing of PPE, where the sector has now attracted a considerable amount of orders. Therefore, we believe that the decline expected for apparel exports at the beginning of the year may be less than that as the sector is going to experience a strong revival with orders in hand for PPEs and EDB is constantly on the lookout for such specific opportunities that Sri Lanka could maximise on.

We firmly believe that there is a great opportunity to establish strong FTAs with China etc., to engage in new export opportunities taking the crisis situation into consideration.

Do you think now EDB needs to re-strategies its business plans to boost exports?

The National Policy Framework "Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour" underlines the key points of achieving economic growth of 6.5 percent or higher, per capita income exceeding USD 6,500 and maintaining the rate of unemployment at less than 4 percent. Exports are very important to achieve this goal.

The Export Development Board (EDB), the country's apex Trade Promotion Organization (TPO), has revised its strategic plan with a focus on addressing what the EDB should do during and the post Covid–19 period and how it should operate to fulfill its mandated role having aligned with the National Policy Framework and National Export Strategy. Accordingly, EDB will adopt and implement 5 Strategic Pillars in the immediate, medium and long term. This includes;

1. Support existing exporters to bolster their exports – This strategy aims to create a business enabling environment for exporters to be competitive in the international market

2. Promote new exports from Sri Lanka to transform the current Sri Lanka export basket - This objective focuses on diversifying current export basket by introducing value addition, innovation and invention

3. Diversify into new markets - This objective supports to diversify current export markets by reducing over dependency on few export markets and reduce the dependency of fewer sourcing destinations

4. Enhance capacity building - This aims to enhance exporter capacities in developing their industries

5. Generate export-led foreign investment into the country - This objective aims to attract export-led FDIs that will ultimately increase production, productivity and new technology adaptation. 

For each of the five strategic pillars, immediate, medium and long-term strategies are identified. Based on that, EDB is in the process of finalising its action plan for the year 2020 and 2021. Implementation of the new actions is expected to help revitalise the export industry that's been hit by the pandemic.

Do you think there is a need to diversify export baskets and markets?

Currently Sri Lanka export engines rely on a blend of traditional industries and growing service sector. It is vital to empower the emergence of champions beyond the traditional export industries of apparel, tea, gems & jewellery and rubber.

Sri Lanka has been over depending on few markets and has been catering to these markets over the past decades. Around 60% of the Sri Lankan exports have been concentrated in the European Union and North American regions showing lower markets

Diversification over Asia, CIS, Africa, Latin America and Oceania regions. We must now pursue other markets as well. 

Connecting Asia to Europe and Africa, Sri Lanka is well-positioned to participate fully in the global production networks and export to billions of consumers, both regionally and beyond. 

Sri Lankan companies that are facing difficulties should be willing to diversify to new markets, and it is high time to make that change happening. Further, companies should also look for new sourcing destinations in future to continue our production lines uninterrupted. 

EDB has been focusing on identifying various measures to diversify our export revenue streams. Various discussion and dialogues were conducted internally and with the multiple stakeholders, and this information are being disseminated with the relevant parties. We encourage exporters to re-visit their product portfolio and to identify new potential products in the short, medium and long term. As a developing nation, we always encourage new investments with a focus on emerging potential areas in agriculture, industrial and service segments. EDB is leading this effort along with all Sri Lankan Missions Overseas.

Further, EDB and BOI work in collaboration to attract and increase investments with a focus on emerging potential areas in agriculture, industrial and service segments targeting key products to enhance the export basket, namely; automotive parts (seals, gaskets, hoses, wiper blades, belts, Conveyor belts), apparel (technical apparel & PPEs), electrical & electronic components (semiconductors, Transformers PCB, panel boards' Insulated wires & cable, Switches, plugs & sockets etc), ICT (Software design & development), Mineral-based products (Graphene and related products) and Food Processing sectors.

To create an export hub and attract investors, a country needs good infrastructure, skilled workers, smooth supply chain and industry-friendly policies. How do you see these factors, and what are your efforts to improve them?

Good infrastructure, trainable workforce and business-friendly ecosystem are very vital components in making Sri Lanka, an export hub.

Sri Lanka's geographical location, dynamic business environment, dependable logistics and resilient human resources have become invaluable assets. Realising this, our government is committed to creating an enabling environment to strengthen the competitiveness, which is a key driver to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth of Sri Lankan exports.

Further, EDB provides its fullest support to exporters to move up in the value chain. Some of them include; Review the supply chains and go for shorter regional supply chain, Establish linkages with cross-functional institutions (ICTA/SLINTEC/Universities), Trade support to assist new exporters in selling their products in the e-marketplace, Identify opportunities in major Global value chains and encourage exporters to diversify into component manufacturing, SMEs development aiming at the Export Market, Assistance for value addition, innovation and inventions and expansion of existing exporter capacity, Facilitate to upgrade the quality of exports through advanced technology (certifications/ standards) in identified new products etc.

In addition, Young, educated & productive, talented and highly trainable workforce in Sri Lanka proves to be one of the best in the region. EDB implement various capacity-building programmes to enhance the know-how of the export community.

For the long term, what is your vision?

To develop stronger Sri Lankan businesses to access global opportunities enhancing foreign exchange earnings while creating employment for our people.

 

 

I can still vividly remember a journey I made in 1995 with my young Kenyan MD (who is no longer living) in a hired car from the Delhi Airport to some town close to Ludhiana to meet a tyre moulding machinery supplier. The travel was through vast expanses of paddy fields extending to miles, and in between, we could see large industrial sites far away. A clear sign of industry and agriculture co-existing synergistically. When passing the area called Kurukshetra, the driver mentioned that there was a war at this area a long time ago. He was obviously referring to the great war of the epic Mahabharata, a subject which still generates ample curiosity in me even at this advanced age. With growing years of maturity, I am more convinced that the great war symbolically and semantically depicts the inner conflicts going on in our own minds, while these are conventionally polarized as ‘black and white’ under the ‘all- or- nothing’ principle, and Kurukshetra represents our own hearts and intellect, commonly called the emotional brain and intellectual brain in today’s jargon. Equipped with my industry experience acquired for nearly six decades, I am tempted to make a rather feeble effort to understand what has changed in the managerial mind map over the past 50 odd years. It would be similar to finding parallels between the Vietnam War in the late sixties and current war going on in the Middle East, despite the common factor, US.

Quite in contrast to machinery and materials, the man component of the traditional 4Ms is the most confusing area despite the vast research that has been carried out over the years. It is said that the adult human brain consists of about 86 billion neurons, an astronomically high figure compared to memory capacity of the modern computers. Over the past few decades, the modern managerial mindset has undergone profound transformations. Managers today, particularly in the age group of 35 to 50 ( Gen X), operate in an astonishingly different scenario compared their counterparts 50 years ago. The two eras are fundamentally different and attempting to compare them is largely futile. The rapid changes, technologically, culturally, socially and psychologically, are so vast that today’s managers are shaped by globalisation, digitalisation and fierce competition, which has significantly altered their cognition, thinking patterns, values and behavioural approaches.

While most living managers of the older generation adopt a stance of lamenting about the ‘’good old times’, I think it would be more prudent to understand the realities of change. Management philosophies have undergone profound change, evolving from Taylor’s scientific management and Fayol’s top-down framework based on five key managerial functions to the humanistic approaches advanced by Carl Rogers and Maslow. This is the universal feature of impermanence of all conditioned phenomena (cause-effect related), discovered more than 2,600 years ago by Lord Buddha and some Greek and other Eastern philosophers. Endeavoring to maintain stability, in an ever-changing world scenario, has been the driver for the emergence of management concepts and theories, including the latest approaches seen in the contemporary modern world. Comparing modern managers with those from 50 years ago is unrealistic because of the complete change in the context. Earlier managers operated in stable and localised economies, while modern managers operate in a dynamic globalised environment. It is sometimes said that ‘when the President of the United Sates sneezes, the Eastern leaders catch a cold’, a fact amply demonstrated by the recent events.

Decision-making in the past was slow and experience-based, while today it is data driven, rapid and technologically assisted. Traditional management emphasised relationships, loyalty and progressive and gradual growth, while modern systems emphasise on performance metrics and quick results, like the instant coffee.

The growing corporate trends due to industrialisation over the past 30 years especially has witnessed increased focus on productivity, efficiency and outputs along with standardisation, which has made workers and managers becoming a part of a mechanised system. Modern corporate managerial thinking is also been heavily influenced by globalisation, due to exposure to international competition and the need to adapt to diverse cultures and markets and the pressures to meet global benchmarks and standards. The constrains and the stresses imposed on countries such as Sri Lanka is tough in these areas. A good example is the EUDR requirements, which initially was a nightmare to the rubber product manufacturing companies. A far more serious non-technical consequence is that the concept of a ‘global village’ is eroding values of the strong cultural and ethical foundation, leading to identity dilution among managers

During my association with the industry, particularly over the past 20 years, I have personally witnessed decline of the traditional values in the modern managerial mindset. This is also seen in some professional associations in which I have been a member for a long time. Some of the key trends noted are as follows:

a) Limited understanding and low priority given for religion, history and cultural heritage.

b) Reduced emphasis on ethics, empathy and social responsibility despite the fact that this has become a ‘catch word’ in most corporate circles.

c) Over reliance on technical knowledge and digital skills.

d) Decline in the respect for elders and their experience (crystallised knowledge)

e) Over confidence due to access to information, which brings forth a ‘know it all ‘stance.

f) Diminished openness to learn from others.

g) Difficulty in accepting criticism and feedback

While these tendencies directly affect workplace relationships, team cohesion and leadership effectives, the hidden or latent consequences have more deeper implications on personal and social wellbeing.

The Buddha in one of the discourses has observed that a person can victoriously face a battle against an army of elephants, horses, chariots and infantry by having the necessary resources, but it will be more difficult to win the war within due to mental conflicts.

Most business environments are characterised by aggressive target setting, continuous performance evaluations and competitive organisational cultures, which has caught the managers in a perpetual rat-race where success is narrowly defined by targets and profits while there is hardly any time for reflection or personal growth. This creates a certain emptiness and dissatisfaction even among the high achievers.

I find it interesting at this juncture to refer to the historic concept of Sigmond Freud (considered as the founder of Psychoanalysis), the structural components of the mind, namely Id (pleasure principle or gratification), Ego (reality principle) and the Super Ego (ethical and moral conscience). In order to minimise the negative impacts of the conflicts between them, the Ego resorts to defence mechanisms, or temporary coping solutions. Some of these are denial of the problem, repression of the feelings, projection of the blame to somewhere else and rationalisation or giving logical but false explanations. While these   are useful in the short term, over reliance can interfere with mental functioning and emotional growth. All of us are unconsciously resorting to one or several of these in times of emotional turmoil.

The pressures of modern management have led to an exponential growth in mental health challenges in recent years, which include common mental disorders such as stress, anxiety, burnout, depression and features associated with Borderline Personality traits (emotional instability and impulsivity), which result in work-life imbalance and chronic dissatisfaction.

Due to the high psychological demands, there is a growing need for career and workplace counselling. Counselling is a relatively new term that came into prominence around the mid-20th century, before which guidance and support was traditionally provided by the religious institutions, parents, teachers and the elders in the society. Over the recent years, counselling has evolved as a unique profession. Many organisations, especially the larger ones due to the seriousness and gravity of the problems they experience, have established counselling as a regular activity performed in-house or outsourced. Counselling helps managers to cope up with stress and expectations, supporting emotional regulation and resilience and enhancing self-awareness and interpersonal skills, which results in reconnecting purpose and meaning and balancing professional and personal life to develop a healthier mind set. The modern managers must endeavour to have a balanced mind set which is an integrated mix of technical competence, human values, cultural awareness and emotional intelligence and wellbeing. Only then they can move beyond being mere ‘cogs in a wheel’ and become holistic, effective and ethical leaders in the modern world

It is somewhat ironic that Human Resource Sustainability is not named as a single standalone goal in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) but covered under several headings such as Good Health and Wellbeing, Quality Education, Gender Equality, Decent Work, Economic Growth and Reduced Inequalities.

While I do not have firsthand information on how human resource counselling is caried out in other countries, my observations and experience in Sri Lanka is that it is done more in a fire fighting or reactive mode, where corrective and remedial measures are taken only in cases of psychological deviances. It is somewhat surprising because Sri Lanka is famous for its preventative public health care in pre and postnatal maternity health and school dental health. Industry safety and health is fairly well addressed in most large, medium and some small enterprises, although these are mainly covering the operational levels. Currently, several standard stress, anxiety and depression measuring scales, both qualitative and quantitative, are available, but they do not seem to be used proactively to detect the cinders underneath the ash. People in emotional distress invariably need to vent their thought and emotions, which causes several cognitive distortions and mental disorders. Active and empathetic listening plays the major role in a therapeutic counselling relationship

Coming back to the Mahabharata, the classic instance of counselling for a person in deep emotional conflict and inner war is the Bhagwat Gita, and all of us will need Lord Krishnas in different disguises at some stages in our lifetimes.

It is interesting how Buddha has adopted an integrative approach to the four aspects or components of wellbeing for human progress as:

• Physical wellbeing
• Mental wellbeing
• Social wellbeing
• Spiritual wellbeing

The author is a Management Counsellor from Sri Lanka. 

At the end of my career, I am at the return-on-investment stage, giving back my mentors’ investments in me for all those years ago, and even not so long ago.

Training to me is setting the standards that you wish your trainees to achieve. All those mistakes you learned the hard way, the tricks of the trade, the missteps can all be related to those who’ve chosen our industry. Help them understand how to learn.

The standard for training has to be set very high; no use having a low bar and then complaining that no one knows what they are doing. If you jump for the stars but don’t quite make it, then at least you’ve cleared the tree tops.

When setting training qualifications, the quality of the parameters of the applied learnings has to be not only high but sound. The written materials have to be water tight, the methodology without flaw and the evidence of successful learnings not just a tick and flick exercise. The candidates undertaking the training have to be assessed and then critically deemed competent.

One could be forgiven for not wanting to get on a commercial aircraft if the pilot had ‘purchased’ the qualification instead of working for years towards it; likewise, think about a surgeon operating. The methodology and learning materials have to be sound and qualified.

Bureaucrats often outline training without any real knowledge of what the industry involves. Sure, there are governmental outlines as to what has to appear and how it must appear, but does this really meet the requirements of industry? Few industries are so alike that the same template of learnings can be applied, but for the sake of being able to tick the boxes and say, ‘Yes Minister’, we have standardised learnings regardless of the actual industry requirements.

Safety is the paramount learning. There is no return on investment if the training candidate is injured or maimed and cannot actually perform the work they were trained in. There are only poor outcomes for all involved, from the employer to the family; the provided training must embed safety as a paramount requirement.

I acknowledge the human failings whereby, even with all safety systems engaged, poor judgements and flawed decision-making can lead to inauspicious outcomes. Humans are fallible creatures, and that is what makes us different from machines.

When engaged in a training process, all the ‘what ifs’ have to be considered. In the early days of my education in computing using pencils and card readers, I soon learned the base rule of garbage in equals garbage out, or GIGO. After numerous hours of hairpulling, a comma was identified as the error; it should have been a full stop. There were no error messages generated, no one looking over my shoulder assisting; I blundered on until I stumbled over the fact that I had screwed up. The outcome was negligible, just some lost time. For others in our industry, a mistake may mean the end of their career, loss of amenity and even loss of their life. Do we permit such ‘what ifs’ to be ignored in training?

In the early days of tyre service personnel training, I’d commence the session by telling the candidates ‘never use your first chance, you may not get a second’, then run a series of videos showing catastrophic tyre failures, some simple others disturbing, but the message was clear. There is a process that has to be followed; do not take short cuts and do not deviate without understanding the risks involved deeply and clearly.

In preparing training materials, the risks (regardless of industry) have to be clearly understood; there is no tolerance for a lack of risk assessment and associated mitigation. If a poor standard of materials is presented to newbies to the industry, how are they equipped to identify the flaws that could propagate the catastrophic outcomes we all seek to avoid?

Training is not unlike the manufacturing of a tyre. The materials involved in the construction have to be of sound quality; the processes used in the matrix of the materials to produce the end result we know as a tyre have to be exacting. Anything less and the end product is a blemish or down grade.

Is this what we desire in the personnel we train?

Tyre servicing is one of the most hazardous occupations that is not licensed. Electricians, medical workers, lawyers, all require strict licensing. Yet the personnel that manipulate large tyres that have destructive burst forces that can, and do, result in fatal injuries may not even be required to demonstrate their competency in the aspects of the duties they may encounter.

Tyres are ubiquitous in our societies; just as we observe with the current petroleum shocks, the loss of tyres would be just as disruptive to our modern way of life. We can live without social media (as much as the squeals I hear saying NOOOOO), but can we live without tyres? From the paddock to the plate, tyres are part and parcel of the product. Look around you right now and think about what didn’t arrive in your sight as a result of tyres’ involvement. I doubt if there is anything you see that didn’t arrive to you on tyres.

So why do we not engage with serious education not only for the personnel operating in the tyre industry but also the general public?

I read of tyre recycling efforts, yet most people will only identify with plastics as a recycling target. This whilst listening to a streaming service sitting on public transport running on transport that requires tyres to operate. Tyres are forgotten; everyone ASSuMEs[sic] that the tyre does its job without any thought given to the personnel that ensure our daily safety and food.

Tyres deserve better recognition of the service they provide to our societies. The personnel that service our tyres also deserve the highest level of training that can be provided, not just learn on the job with the potential of not being able to return home in the same condition as they arrived at work.

Training packages must be water tight; anything less will only result in the submersion of the outcomes below the standard that is safe. Training is an investment in the future; to those who invested in me in my younger days, I say THANK YOU! You did well in that I have made it to the later stages of my life intact and am still able to function. Your mentorship is remembered and honoured.

I take this opportunity to remember John Powath, the founder of this masthead. His standards and leadership have created opportunities for our industry to achieve a global recognition of excellence.

Training is the foundation of our industrial and societal processes. Do not scrimp on the materials presented and do not underestimate the risks involved regardless of how trivial they may seem.

Take care, stay safe and invest in your future by offering the highest quality training you can possibly deliver. Your life may depend upon it.”

The effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure will become particularly evident in 2026 and undoubtedly represent a strategic bottleneck for global energy and petrochemical trade. The Gulf War disrupted raw material supplies, crippled logistics and destabilised key export markets.

While the war represents a financial catastrophe, it also presents new opportunities. It has driven up raw material costs, while the logistics crisis has impacted export markets. The financial consequences include shrinking margins and reduced demand. However, long-term strategic shifts are expected, and these trends are likely to accelerate by 2040.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruptions in the Red Sea have brought maritime traffic to the Middle East and Europe to a near standstill. The war has caused logistical chaos, and exports face immediate difficulties. China alone was expected to export more than seven million tyres to the Middle East by 2025, but this vital trade route is now blocked by skyrocketing freight rates and insurance premiums.

The profitability of the sector, whose gross margins are expected to fall to slightly more than four times their pre-war levels, is likely to be impacted by market consolidation and rising demand for high-tech tyres, particularly for electric vehicles. In the short to long term, the costs of raw materials such as synthetic rubber, carbon black and logistics are expected to rise significantly. Furthermore, this crisis could spur massive investments in bio-based and recycled materials to reduce dependence on petroleum. To address supply bottlenecks, the sharp decline in exports from the Middle East, coupled with significantly increased transportation costs, should be offset by regionalised production, for example, in India and Southeast Asia. With regard to product development, the short-term priority of cost control should lead to an acceleration of research and development into sustainable rubber compounds and sensorless smart tyres.

The end of the Gulf War is likely to usher in a period of weak economic growth and high inflation. The tyre industry is already facing a profound restructuring process. In the post-war era, the focus is not only on repairing the damage but, above all, on accelerating the long-term transition to regionalised supply chains, a circular economy and value creation through technology.

The most immediate consequence of war is a drastic increase in raw material costs,

which can account for almost 70 percent of tyre production costs. Around 45 percent of the raw materials used in the tyre industry are petroleum-based, and another 45 percent are natural rubber. In the case of synthetic rubber (NBR/SBR), the direct rise in oil prices leads to a price increase for butadiene, a key raw material. In the US, NBR prices rose by 7.4 percent at the beginning of March 2026; in China, butadiene prices jumped by 25 percent within a week.

Analysts estimate that this conflict could reduce global natural rubber production by 36 to 45 kilotonnes in the first half of 2026. How can this be explained, given that the effects on natural rubber are indirect? Diesel shortages prevent trucks from collecting rubber from plantations, thus reducing supply on the market. This shortage is contributing to the energy crisis in Southeast Asia. Prices for carbon black and chemicals derived from oil and gas are also rising in line with increasing energy costs. The supply of speciality chemicals (such as bromine from Israel) is also at risk.

Bio-based materials, particularly long-term ESG pilot projects, represent an immediate strategic necessity. The market for bio-based materials is projected to reach USD 337 million by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 101 percent, thus replacing volatile petrochemical feedstocks. Similarly, it is becoming increasingly clear that tyre pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) and sensorless, AI-powered systems like Michelin SmartWear can reduce costs and enhance safety.

Rising energy prices and crumbling infrastructure will weigh on consumption and investment. Inflation is high and is expected to remain high (around four percent for the G20 in 2026). Even after the war, energy costs and the rebuilding of supply chains will keep prices high. Consequently, the post-war economic recovery is expected to be slow and uneven, without a V-shaped rebound. The war has left lasting scars on global supply chains and public finances. Global GDP growth is weaker and below the pre-pandemic average.

In the field of carbon black recycling, carbon black is developing into a strategic raw material. Recycled carbon black (rCB) and tyre pyrolysis oil are becoming strategic raw materials intended to replace unstable fossil fuels. Massive investments, such as in Lummus-InnoVent, a continuous pyrolysis technology, will increase rCB production and reach a market of USD 15.6 billion by 2034.

Sustainable and bio-based materials are of great strategic importance, and significant investments are already being made to increase their production. Rising oil prices are making bio-based alternatives economically viable and essential for security of supply. Therefore, the transition to sustainable materials is no longer just an ESG goal but a necessity for the entire supply chain.

The Gulf War acted as a powerful catalyst, transforming promising future trends into immediate and essential investments. Bio-based silanes, for example, are now being used more and more frequently. Momentive’s NXT P97, a next-generation silane for electric vehicle tyres with 79 percent bio-based carbon, reduces reliance on fossil fuels while improving rolling resistance and durability. This technology, a prime example, is currently being deployed on a large scale.

Tyre prices will remain high. The recovery will therefore be characterised more by rapid strategic development than by a simple return to pre-war levels. It is not so much the fluctuating demand from car manufacturers, but rather the replacement tyre market, which alone accounts for 70 percent of the volume, that is likely to continue to strongly support the consumer goods and logistics sectors during the economic recovery.

Increasing uncertainty is becoming the new normal. Geopolitical risks remain a key concern, forcing companies to prioritise resilience over efficiency. This situation is creating unequal competitive conditions for tyre manufacturers and their core markets. The difficulties faced by energy-importing countries in Europe and Asia will be further exacerbated in this climate of uncertainty.

This crisis will be one of the main reasons for the relocation of production to key markets, forcing the tyre industry to make unavoidable investments. It will be compelled to implement the technologies necessary for a more resilient, sustainable and technologically advanced future. New production centres will be established to circumvent geopolitical obstacles. This new dynamic is characterised by a clear strategic realignment of production and supply chains, accelerating ‘out-of-China’ models and leading to regionalisation. This conflict is not merely a disruption but a form of brutality for economically weaker countries, even if it represents a highly effective response to the relocation of production areas.

This war teaches us that excessive dependence on unstable regions like the Middle East must be balanced by the need for market diversification. Exporters like China and India will increasingly focus on Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Margins will remain under pressure in the short term. High raw material and energy costs will not fall immediately. Large global companies will gain market share by leveraging their size and technology, as well as through increased regionalisation. Conversely, smaller, less diversified companies risk being acquired or exiting the market. Companies with strong pricing power and high operational efficiency will recover faster than those that rely solely on low prices.

The tyre industry is facing profound change. The tyre market is being restructured, and local, sales-oriented production is being intensified to circumvent geopolitical barriers and tariffs. In the short term, demand is expected to recover, but profit margins will be severely impacted by persistently high costs. In the long term, the sector will become more regionally focused, evolve towards a circular economy and rely more heavily on technology. In short, the end of the war will not restore the pre-conflict status quo. The crisis has forced a difficult but necessary transition to sustainable and resilient business models that will shape the key trends through 2040. 

Fifty-seven years ago on 1st September 1968, I joined the rubber products manufacturing industry in Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) as a trainee in a medium scale footwear company. The only knowledge or rather awareness I had of rubber until that time was seeing the tapping of trees, adding a pungent liquid to the milky liquid, put on metal trays, squeezing the whitish slab of material through two rotating metal rollers manually rotated by a crank and putting them in a smoke shed that was available in some backyards to end up with a striped brownish sheet of rubber, which I later learnt was known as RSS. Later, in the early sixties, during our Organic Chemistry lessons, we learnt that C5H8 is the formula for Isoprene, which is the building block of natural rubber. Going down the memory lane of the past 57 years of knowledge acquisition in the rubber industry might turn out to be an exhaustive exercise. However, it is my sincere hope that some of my experiential insights might help the modern-day managers to seek areas that may strengthen their foundations in this era of rapid shifting sands.

I should say I am at a loss in finding an appropriate definition of knowledge from the vast interpretations which appear to be too academic. One practical and easy to understand definition I have come across in that knowledge is the ability to understand, apply and transfer information and experience to solve problems and adapt to changing circumstances, Merely the possession of facts is meaningless. It is the skill of using them effectively for survival, development and progress that is more important. It reminds me of the many research findings and innovations that are gathering dust in many institutions. In the case of early humans, knowledge emerged through direct observation of nature, trial and error and sharing same with groups. In my opinion, the context has virtually been the same over the ages, although the scope and the contents have undergone drastic changes during the course of human history, particularly through the four industrial revolutions and apparently heading for an unprecedented and a somewhat incomprehensible future.

If I am asked the question how I have acquired knowledge during my working life, I would say without any hesitation that it was through a process of osmosis. Those who studied botany under the biological sciences may perhaps vaguely remember how plants absorb water, minerals and other nutrients from the surrounding soil through their root systems by the process called osmosis. In a similar manner, we also acquire knowledge from the external environment through our sense facilities, namely the eyes, ears, nose, tongue and the skin, and through perceptions, which are processed by our brain and the central nervous system. The Buddhist doctrine gives a clear description of this process, which are well in line with the biological and physiological sciences. I, however, would not wish to go in to a philosophical deliberation at this point of time. Knowledge acquisition is a lifelong process with the ‘cradle to grave’ concept, and according to the modern scientific findings, starting at the moment of our conception in the mother’s womb.

I would now endeavour to delve a little into the knowledge acquisition modalities available to us trainees during our formative days of the career in the rubber industry from the late sixties onwards. The modern rubber technologist (if the term is still in use) may perhaps find them archaic as if they are viewing the archaeological remnants exhibited at a museum. It was hands-on experience from the beginning in what was termed a 3D industry, namely dirty, difficult and dangerous. This was mainly due to the particulate and dusty nature of the various fillers used such as carbon black and the toxicity of the rubber chemicals, coupled with the usage of high energy consuming motor driven machinery, both electrical and heat, usage of steam and compressed air, emission of high noise and vibration, fumes and high material load in some industries such as tyre manufacturing and tyre re-treading. The complexity and diversity are further aggravated by the macromolecular nature of both natural and synthetic rubber, which necessitates the somewhat illogical steps of breaking and remaking using a vast array of heterogeneous raw materials to facilitate the processability and for achieving the performance requirements of the products, some of which are of highly composite nature. As a consequence of the above, rubber product manufacturing industry was not at all the preferred choice for young school leavers like me. Hence, my entry into the rubber industry was due to the pure necessity of finding employment. However, the practical involvement with the identification and weighing of the multitude of rubber raw materials somehow had its attraction for me, which prompted me to read the limited number of text books and supplier literature that were available at that time. The real turning point in my career in the industry was the opportunity I got to follow the two-year part-time course at the then Ceylon College of Technology (now a university) to study for the Licentiate of the Institution of the Rubber Industry, LIRI (UK). This was equivalent to a full time BSc today. We were very fortunate to have three well-respected and dedicated teachers of the day in our quest for the acquisition of knowledge. Teaching was a noble profession for them, and I am very proud to state that their photographs adorn the entrance to the auditorium at the Plastics and Rubber Institute of Sri Lanka, where I joined as student in 1969 and ended up as its President for the year 2024.

Another remarkable feature during those days came in the shape of representatives from well-reputed giants in the raw material manufacturing companies such as Bayer, ICI, Monsanto, ACCI Rhien-Chemi and Polysar, names which to my knowledge are not existing now, or may be as mergers. These were invaluable opportunities for us the young technologists to gain the technical knowledge and discussion about the technical problems. The short technical sessions conducted by some of them in the evenings were eagerly awaited occasions during our days to share knowledge over a cup of tea. I am a little puzzled whether some of the similar events conducted online as webinars have the same effects or if at all that personal rapport.

The Bayers Technical Programme conducted annually at Thane, India, during those days was another avenue for gaining very valuable theoretical and practical knowledge, and I was fortunate to associate with prominent professionals such as R R Pandit, who left this world a few years ago, and Dr S N Chakravarthy.During my working with the Bata Shoe Company of Ceylon for 12 years, I had the opportunity to represent the company at a few of the Regional Technical Meetings held in the Far East. These were invaluable platforms for sharing knowledge and information of the technical developments of the individual companies. They were also enjoyable opportunities for networking and building up some lasting relationships. After following the programmes, it was compulsory that we give a presentation to the management and staff about our learning experiences, and more importantly, to plan development activities, the success of which was one criterion for our individual performance evaluation. Knowledge by itself is not power unless it is shared – a truism that will not apply to politics and the intelligence services. I well remember the case in a place I worked later about how some staff members who were sent to Japan for training deliberately skipped sharing what they learnt at company expense with the fellow staff members despite the several reminders.

As a passing remark, I may mention that my period of working in the tyre retreading and rubber products manufacturing companies in Kenya (for about 14 years) offered me the good opportunity of working with multiethnic communities while imparting my knowledge to train and develop staff members.

Now, coming to the global rubber product manufacturing, it can be seen that the focus on mixing, curing and reinforcement knowledge requirements has expanded into a multidisciplinary portfolio over the past 50 years, and the quest will continue. It is not prudent to do comparisons as ‘now and then’ because knowledge acquisition and its management is heavily dependent on the needs and requirements at any particular era or period of time. Unlike in our generation, a vast knowledge base, which is sometimes bewildering, is available at the touch of a fingertip for the modern-day managers, and apparently, most of it is related to their work and operational activities. My discussions and chats with many managers reveal the fact that they are overburdened with their daily activities and are working at different stress levels. They seldom seem to have any time or opportunity to integrate their work with the core values such as respect, gratuity and empathetical understanding.

The famous quote of Sir Issac Newton comes to my mind at this juncture: “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” He wrote this statement in a letter to Robert Hooke in February 1675, acknowledging that his own scientific discoveries were built upon the work of his predecessors, a sentiment that symbolises humility and scientific progress.

Knowledge and discipline go hand in hand. How to use knowledge appropriately needs discipline to comprehend. The consequences of using knowledge for the sake of knowledge, purely for application to industry, without giving due recognition to humanity and our core values is surfacing rapidly at the cost of trust, wellbeing, harmony and human development in every aspect of human activity, both locally and globally. In this respect, I remember the famous line from the poem, The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, by Samual Taylor Coleridge, which we happened to study in our literature class a long time ago.

‘Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink’ illustrates the irony and anguish of being desperately hot and thirsty whilst being surrounded by nothing but ocean.

The author is a Management Counsellor from Sri Lanka.