Indian Tyre Industry Growth Expected to Moderate on Cost Pressures

Indian Tyre Industry Growth Expected to Moderate on Cost Pressures
  • Domestic tyre volume growth to slow to 4-6 percent in FY2025 due to a high base and subdued commercial vehicle demand.
  • Replacement market to remain stable, supporting overall volume expansion.
  • Tyre exports to see low single-digit growth after contracting in FY2023.
  • High natural rubber and crude oil prices to squeeze margins by 200-300 basis points in FY2025.
  • Investments in new capacity to be moderate due to adequate existing capacity and a modest demand forecast.
  • Focus on debottlenecking, digitalisation, and R&D for sustainable and smart tyres.
  • Organised tyre retreading to grow at a CAGR of 7-9 percent on rising environmental focus and government support.

 

Domestic Growth to Ease

According to ICRA, India's tyre industry is expected to moderate domestic volume growth in FY2025 due to a high base effect and subdued demand from the commercial vehicle segment. However, healthy replacement market demand and growth in original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sales for passenger vehicles and two-wheelers are expected to partially offset this slowdown.

Nithya Debbadi, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, ICRA, said: “Tyre exports are expected to remain moderate in the near term because of muted demand growth in key export destinations, namely the US and Europe. Further, supply chain issues arising from the Red Sea crisis have raised freight costs (resulting in increased cost of tyre) and elongated transit times. In terms of domestic factors, despite an elevated base, consumer segments are expected to record a mid-single digit growth (PV at 4-6 percent, 2Ws at 5-7 percent), on the back of healthy underlying demand. However, growth in the CV segment is expected to be impacted by the brief pause in infrastructure activities because of the Parliamentary Elections, with the Model Code of Conduct, which is in force because of the Parliamentary elections, and the impact of high base. Tractor demand growth is expected to be supported by the forecast of above normal monsoons, aiding rural cash flows.”

ICRA expects the replacement market, which contributes to over two-thirds of the industry volumes, to remain stable, aided by healthy demand across the segments. Tyre export volumes, which contribute approximately 25 percent of the industry’s sales (by value), are estimated to have recorded a low single-digit growth in FY2024 after contracting by around seven percent in FY2023, owing to demand shrinkage in key markets amid inflationary pressure and higher interest rates.

 “After a strong growth in two consecutive years, the tyre industry’s revenue growth (consolidated for ICRA’s sample set of seven leading tyre manufacturers) is estimated to have moderated to mid-single digits in FY2024 with estimated domestic volume growth of 6-8 percent, flattish realisations and subdued exports. For FY2025, the industry revenues are expected to grow by 5-7 percent, primarily driven by domestic OEM and replacement segments,” added  Debbadi.

Margins to Contract on Rising Input Costs

Indian tyre companies' operating margins, which soared to 15-17 percent in FY2024 on the back of favourable raw material prices, are expected to take a hit in FY2025. This comes after a sharp increase in input costs since January 2024.

Global supply shortages triggered by adverse weather in Southeast Asia, a key natural rubber (NR) producing region, have caused international NR prices to jump 25-30 percent in the past four months. The RSS3 grade, a benchmark NR type, is currently trading around INR 185-186 per kg, with domestic prices mirroring this rise due to India's reliance on NR imports. This, coupled with increasing crude oil prices, is likely to squeeze tyre industry margins by 200-300 basis points in FY2025, according to ICRA.

Focus on Efficiency and Sustainability

With existing capacity utilisation at 75–85 percent, investments in new plants are expected to be moderate. The industry will likely shift towards debottlenecking existing facilities, process improvements, digitalisation, and research and development (R&D) for sustainable and smart tyres with lower rolling resistance and improved safety features.

Growth in the Retreading Segment

Rising environmental concerns and government initiatives are expected to drive the organised tyre retreading market at a CAGR of 7-9 percent during FY2023–FY2026. Focusing on sustainable practices, improved technology, better road infrastructure, and increasing radialization in the commercial vehicle segment will support this growth.

Credit Metrics to Remain Comfortable

Despite the expected margin contraction, the industry's credit metrics are forecast to remain healthy due to ongoing profitability and moderate capital expenditure plans. The industry is expected to continue investing 6–9 percent of its revenue in capex during FY2025.

 

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