Natural Rubber Prices to Pressure Profit Margins; Credit Profiles Remain Stable

Tyre manufacturers in India are bracing for a second consecutive year of single-digit revenue growth as rising natural rubber prices and global economic challenges weigh on the sector. Revenue is forecast to grow seven percent to eight percent in the current fiscal year, driven by a three percent to four percent increase in both realisations and volume, according to an analysis by CRISIL Ratings. 

While this marks a significant improvement from the previous fiscal year, when revenue grew at approximately four percent, it falls short of the compound annual growth rate of 21 percent between fiscal years 2021 and 2023. 

Gradual price increases to offset cost pressures 

Tyre makers are implementing gradual price hikes to mitigate the impact of surging natural rubber costs, which account for nearly 50 percent of raw material expenses. Realisation growth is expected to be staggered throughout the year as manufacturers carefully balance price increases with market demand. 

Volume growth, projected at three percent to four percent, will be driven primarily by replacement demand rather than new vehicle sales. However, the limited ability to fully pass on higher input costs will strain operating margins, which are expected to shrink by approximately 300 basis points to 13 percent this fiscal year, down from 16 percent in the previous year. 

 “Domestic demand accounts for around 75 percent of the industry’s sales (in tonnage terms), while the rest is exported. About two-thirds of the domestic demand is from the replacement segment and the rest is from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). This fiscal, replacement demand, mainly from commercial and passenger vehicles, will drive volume growth, while OEM demand is expected to rise only between one and two percent due to slow growth in commercial vehicle sales,” says Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings.

Stable cash flows and balance sheets 

Despite these challenges, tyre makers are expected to maintain stable credit profiles due to robust balance sheets and prudent capital expenditure. Cash flow generation, though modestly affected, will remain substantial. Gearing and interest coverage ratios are projected to stay steady at approximately 0.3 times and seven to eight times, respectively, consistent with last fiscal year’s levels. 

A CRISIL Ratings analysis of the six largest tyre manufacturers, which together account for about 87 percent of the industry’s revenue, supports this outlook. 

Export growth weakens 

Export growth is forecast to remain muted at two percent to three percent for the year, reflecting sluggish demand in key overseas markets such as North America and Europe, which collectively account for 60 percent of India’s tyre exports. Geopolitical tensions and supply-chain disruptions have exacerbated the situation, leading to higher freight costs and extended transit times, further curbing export demand. 

Global shortages drive up raw material costs 

The sharp rise in natural rubber prices is primarily attributed to a global supply shortage caused by adverse weather conditions in leading producer countries like Thailand and Vietnam, which together account for approximately 50 percent of global rubber production. 

In addition to natural rubber, the cost of other critical raw materials, including nylon tyre cords, carbon black, styrene-butadiene rubber and polybutadiene rubber, remains volatile due to their dependence on crude oil prices. 

Outlook and challenges 

Looking ahead, tyre makers will likely continue to face pressures from raw material price volatility, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) demand fluctuations, potential changes in import duties, and the implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility regulations. 

Naren Kartic. K, Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings, says, “To support domestic tyre manufacturers, the Indian government has extended the countervailing duty on Chinese radial tyres for five years to ease competition. Plus, given the sluggish demand and pressure on operating margins, tyre makers are implementing appropriate price increases and prudent capital expenditure to ensure that capital efficiencies remain satisfactory. With capacity utilisation at  around 80 percent, tyre manufacturers rated by us are investing around INR 55 billion this fiscal, slightly lower than last fiscal, with a focus on necessary capacity enhancements and debottlenecking.”

Wabash, a leading supplier of connected solutions for the transportation, logistics and distribution industries, has renewed its strategic agreement with the Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company, one of the world’s largest tyre companies.

The agreement is expected to further strengthens Goodyear’s position as the preferred tyre supplier for Wabash's van, tank and platform trailers, and will also provide Wabash customers with full-service tyre management support.

Richard Mansilla, Vice-President, global supply chain at Wabash, said, “We are excited to continue our long-standing relationship with Goodyear. This agreement strengthens our supply chain with a premium brand, enhances customer support and contributes to the continued growth of the Wabash ecosystem. We look forward to building on our shared commitment to industry innovation and exceptional service.”

For over 15 years, Goodyear has been the equipping Wabash with tyres for its trailer product lines.

Joe Burke, Vice-President of Goodyear’s North America Commercial business, said, “Goodyear's collaboration with Wabash underscores our combined focus to deliver high-quality, innovative products and seamless, end-to-end services to van, tank and platform trailer customers. We are excited to continue advancing solutions that enhance the Wabash customer experience and help ensure they carry their cargo with confidence.”

Continental, one of the leading tyre and automotive technology suppliers, has launched its new fuel-efficient, long haul drive tyre – Conti HDL 3 EP - for the United States Market.

The company stated that the new tyre combines high-structure carbon black and silica technology to deliver a well-balanced mix of rolling resistance and durability. It features a polymer matrix-bound silica compound, which enables up to 10 percent better rolling resistance compared to its predecessor and is SmartWay verified for Class 8 long haul tractor trailers.

Shaun Uys, Head of Continental’s Truck Tyre Replacement Business in the US, said, “The Conti HDL 3 EP was purposefully designed with a fleet’s needs in mind – from being built on 3G Casing for maximum retreadability, to its improved rolling resistance and even wear. This premium long-haul tire was designed to help fleets achieve their lowest overall driving cost.”

The Conti HDL 3 EP comes with groove geometry reduces stone retention, and the tyre offers up to 15 percent improved cut and chip resistance, further extending its lifespan.

It is built on Continental 3G Casing that has a 240-245 mm retread width, and features a state-of-the-art belt package that reduces heat, increases durability, and maximises retreadability. It can also be paired with Continental’s ContiConnect Live digital tyre monitoring system.

The tyre will be available for the replacement market in size 295/75R22.5 in load range G, and additional sizes to be introduced by Q1 2025. 

Bridgestone Corporation (Bridgestone), one of the leading trye manufacturers, is all set to supply the Battlax Hypersport S23 tyres as original equipment for the Kawasaki Ninja 1100SX.

The Battlax Hypersport S23 tyres feature a new pattern design, which the company said balances optimal changes in contact patch stiffness with exceptional water drainage properties for riding on wet surfaces. The tyres provide both enhanced grip and handling stability during straight-line riding and at large lean angles.

The Kawasaki Ninja 1100SX offers riding performance and aggressive styling. It is equipped with the KQS (Kawasaki Quick Shifter), a USB Type-C power socket, and a smartphone connectivity function.

The partners have co-developed the tyres through a long-term co-creation development.

Using racing as a ‘mobile laboratory,’ Bridgestone aims to refine technology in extreme conditions, evolving and connecting the innovation to the development of replacement tyres for the future under the concept ‘From Circuit to Street.’

The tyre maker is banking on motorsports activities to continuously evolve its ‘Dan-Totsu’ products and strengthen its global premium niche strategy in the premium motorcycle tyre business.

Hankook Tire has launched the fourth generation Ventus evo, a sporty ultra-high-performance summer tyre for changeable conditions.

Featuring a new mixture developed using artificial intelligence (AI), the tyre provides excellent wet grip and low rolling resistance. The wide drainage grooves work in tandem with the optimised tyre contact area to facilitate good evacuation of water and reduce the risk of aquaplaning, while the extra-rigid sidewalls and tread blocks provide stability during cornering and shorten the dry braking distance by six percent compared to the third-generation tyre. The innovative mixture, on the other hand, ensures low rolling resistance despite the high grip. This reduces fuel consumption and provides a 32 percent increase in mileage compared to the third-generation tyre.

Klaus Krause, Vice President and Head of Europe Technical Centre, Hankook, said, “With the fourth generation of the Ventus evo, we are setting new standards. We decided early on to leverage AI in the development of tyre mixtures and were able to successfully transform the laboratory results into high-quality industrial processes. Today, we’re seeing the benefits of that effort. With its innovative mixture ratio, the Ventus evo overcomes traditional trade-offs, delivering uncompromising excellence in performance, safety and mileage.”

The new Ventus evo and Ventus evo SUV will be available in stores in 58 sizes by this summer, with plans to expand the offering to 94 sizes – from 17 to 23 inches in widths from 205 to 325 in the 65 to 30 series and with speed indexes from V to (Y) – by the end of next year.