India’s tyre industry is bracing for a tough fiscal year, weighed down by sluggish demand, volatile raw material prices and muted export growth. Revenue is forecast to expand just 7-8 percent – supported by modest price hikes and a marginal rise in volumes – marking a second straight year of single-digit growth. However, operating margins are set to contract sharply as natural rubber prices remain elevated despite recent moderation. In a wide-ranging discussion, Anuj Sethi, Senior Director at CRISIL Ratings, unpacks the factors shaping the sector, from price pressures and replacement demand to global headwinds and evolving trade dynamics.

How would you characterise the current fiscal year for the Indian tyre industry, considering its challenges and opportunities?

With volume expected to grow just by about 3-4 percent due to sluggish demand, overall revenue growth will remain in single digit for the second straight year, this fiscal. On the other hand, high raw material prices, especially of natural rubber, rose sharply over the past 12 months and have only recently begun to moderate. To a moderate extent, tyre manufacturers are increasing tyre prices in the replacement market to offset the impact of higher input prices, albeit operating profitability will still be impacted this fiscal.

The report mentions 7-8 percent revenue growth this fiscal year, supported by a 3-4 percent increase in realisations and volume. What specific factors could push growth beyond this forecast, and what risks might undercut it?

While realisation growth due to price hikes being undertaken by tyre manufacturers is a certain given sharp increase in natural rubber prices, higher than projected volume growth could take the growth higher than expected. With about 2/3rd of the domestic demand

coming from replacement segment, and it being the primary volume driver, any significant decline in that demand can impact the growth forecast other way.

Given that replacement demand is the primary volume driver, how do you assess the longevity of this demand surge in the context of evolving consumer preferences and vehicle usage patterns?

The replacement demand is expected to sustain over the medium term driven by the strong automotive sales achieved in previous fiscals.

With operating profitability projected to drop 300 basis points, what contingency measures are tyre makers considering beyond gradual price increases to mitigate this impact?

The price of natural rubber, which constitutes about half of the raw materials, continued to surge sharply in the first half of fiscal 2025. However, ability to pass on this increase is limited due to modest volume growth. Small price hikes and continued focus at improving operating efficiencies on an ongoing basis is another way to offset the impact to some extent.

Natural rubber prices have been highly volatile, reaching record highs and then falling to around INR 170 per kg. What is your outlook for natural rubber prices in the near to medium term, and what factors will likely influence their movement?

The sharp rise in natural rubber prices is due to a global shortage caused by inclement weather in major producing countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, which account for about half of the global production. Going forward, increase in supply with improving hectarage and slowdown in global economies is likely to drive correction in international rubber prices. In the last couple of months, some moderation in natural rubber prices has happened.

China has a surplus in crude oil-derived raw materials, including carbon black and other chemicals. Do you anticipate this surplus impacting global prices for these commodities, and how might Indian tyre makers benefit or face challenges as a result?

Share of natural rubber in tyre manufacturing is 47 percent, while carbon black accounts for ~20-22 percent. Should carbon black prices remain under control, it will benefit domestic tyre manufacturers.

Export growth is expected to remain muted at 2-3 percent. How does the current geopolitical climate, including sanctions or trade restrictions, further complicate Indian tyre makers’ access to markets in North America and Europe?

Export growth is expected to remain sluggish due to challenging business conditions in US and Europe. However, certain segments like off-the-road tyres are beginning to see better prospects as stocks with dealers are moderating. This could help players with presence in the off-the road- tyre segment.

Exports to key markets such as North America and Europe are under pressure due to economic challenges and unviable operating costs, leading to plant shutdowns in regions like US, Europe and Israel. Is the Indian tyre industry at risk of facing similar challenges, or does it have structural advantages that mitigate these risks?

Indian players are better placed compared to some of the western peers due to comparatively lower cost of operations, though operating profitability has come under pressure this fiscal because of higher imported rubber prices. Also, Indian players have flexibility to supply in small batch sizes unlike Chinese peers, and hence this also works to their advantage, more prominently in higher margin segments such as off-the road tyres.

Have tyre makers explored new international markets or alternative trade routes to counter supply chain disruptions and higher freight costs?

Not really; to circumvent the difficult environment around the Suez Canal, vessels are going around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-3 weeks and additional freight cost on exports. Some of the costs are being shared with the customers.

The report references Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) regulations. How significant is the financial and operational burden of compliance for tyre makers, and what progress has been made in addressing this?

Adoption of EPR regulations is not expected to have a very sizeable impact on profitability, though it will lead to investments in strengthening processes and in technology.

JK Tyre & Industries is aiming for double-digit revenue growth in FY2026, outpacing its forecast for single-digit expansion across the broader tyre industry. Managing Director Anshuman Singhania outlined the company’s ambitions during a post-earnings media call, underscoring confidence in demand recovery and strategic market positioning.

Q1 Performance Overview

For the first quarter of FY2026, JK Tyre reported revenue of INR 38.91 billion, with EBITDA at INR 4.24 billion, translating to a margin of 10 percent. Net profit stood at ₹1.55 billion — up 51 percent compared with the previous quarter, but down 21 percent YoY.

Singhania attributed the annual decline to muted original equipment (OE) demand, particularly in truck and bus radial (TBR) volumes, alongside higher raw material costs compared to the same period last year. He also highlighted an adverse impact from the company’s Tornel business in Mexico, which faced uncertainty due to tariffs on exports from Mexico to the United States, dampening volumes.

Resilience in Domestic and Export Markets

Dr Raghupati Singhania, Chairman and Managing Director, JK Tyre & Industries, said, “The growth momentum in domestic markets remained robust in Q1, with JK Tyre clocking a sales growth of 11 percent YoY, as contributed by a steady demand for our products in both replacement as well as OE segments, underscoring JK Tyre’s continued focus on core growth drivers and strengthening market presence.”

“Despite a challenging and uncertain macro-economic environment, exports of passenger car tyres witnessed a strong traction both on QoQ and YoY basis, signifying pull for our products and enhanced brand perception in the global markets,” said Dr Singhania.

Operational efficiencies and strategic pricing supported performance, even as natural rubber prices remained elevated. Subsidiaries Cavendish (India) and Tornel (Mexico) continued to contribute significantly to the group’s consolidated financials.

Operational efficiencies and strategic pricing supported performance, even as natural rubber prices remained elevated. Subsidiaries Cavendish (India) and Tornel (Mexico) continued to contribute significantly to the group’s consolidated financials.

Regarding trade tensions between India and the US, Anshuman Singhania noted that exports from India to the US account for only around 3 percent of JK Tyre’s revenue and could be redirected to markets such as Mexico, Latin America, Brazil and the UAE if required. With zero tariffs in Mexico, JK Tyre can utilise its production base there to meet demand for both passenger and truck radials. The EU and UK, where JK Tyre holds a strong position in the TBR segment, also remain tariff-free.

Capacity expansion

The company’s INR 14 billion capital expenditure plan is progressing on schedule, covering passenger car radial (PCR), TBR and all-steel truck radial projects. For the year, investment is expected to total INR 9-10 billion, aimed at boosting production capacity by 30-40 percent.

A key driver for future profitability is the shift towards premium products. The share of 16-inch and above passenger car tyres in JK Tyre’s portfolio has grown from 18 percent in FY2020 to 25 percent in FY2025, with a target of 40-45 percent over the next two to three years. This change is being fuelled by rising SUV sales, larger rim sizes in entry-level cars and strong export demand.

The company has also developed a complete range of tyres for electric vehicles, spanning commercial truck radials, bus tyres, passenger radials and two/three-wheeler tyres  Major OEMs such as Ashok Leyland’s Switch Mobility and Tata Motors are sourcing these products, including for last-mile connectivity vehicles and newly launched EV buses.

Market Outlook

The replacement market has been a bright spot, with passenger radial volumes up 32 percent year-on-year and truck radial volumes growing in the high single digits. JK Tyre expects demand to strengthen in the second half of FY2026, supported by infrastructure development, a favourable monsoon, potential interest rate cuts, and improved consumer liquidity.

Anshuman Singhania stressed that the worst of raw material price pressures appear to be over, paving the way for margin improvement as the product mix shifts and capacity utilisation rises. With the small car segment’s gradual decline offset by growth in premium categories, JK Tyre remains confident in sustaining momentum.

“Overall, India is poised for growth,” Singhania concluded. “We see positives across the board — from infrastructure push to evolving consumer preferences — and we are well-positioned to capitalise on these trends.”

Yokohama Rubber has begun supplying its ADVAN V61 tyres as original equipment for BYD’s new SEALION 6 DM-i SUV, marking the Japanese manufacturer’s first OE partnership with the Chinese carmaker.

The SEALION 6 DM-i, a plug-in hybrid SUV launched by BYD Company Ltd. this July, is being factory-fitted with 235/50R19 103V size ADVAN V61 tyres. The announcement comes as Yokohama seeks to grow its footprint in China’s fast-evolving electric and hybrid vehicle market.

The ADVAN V61 is part of Yokohama’s global flagship ADVAN range and is positioned as a premium SUV tyre. The company said the tyre “offers ADVAN’s hallmark premium-grade driving performance, along with a high-level balance of fuel and energy efficiency, handling stability, and quietness, achieving both comfortable city driving and long-distance touring for heavyweight SUVs.”

The SEALION 6 DM-i combines a 1.5-litre naturally aspirated petrol engine producing up to 74kW with an electric motor generating 160kW. Buyers can choose between 18.3 kWh and 26.6 kWh blade battery options, offering electric driving ranges of 93km and 130km, respectively. All models come equipped with advanced driver assistance systems as standard, and the exterior design draws inspiration from the concept of “ocean aesthetics.”

Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd said its subsidiary Dunlop Tyre Japan Ltd has completed a Japan Fair Trade Commission investigation into automotive all-season tyre sales after the regulator approved a commitment plan submitted by the unit.

The probe, which examined the subsidiary’s sales practices, concluded without the commission identifying any violation of Japan’s Antimonopoly Act, Sumitomo Rubber said in a statement.

Under Japan’s commitment procedures, companies can submit plans to address potential competition concerns without admitting wrongdoing, allowing them to resolve investigations while avoiding formal sanctions.

"We deeply apologise for the great trouble and anxiety that we have caused to all concerned, including our clients and business partners,” the tyre maker said.

Belgian steel wire maker Bekaert reported resilient first-half 2025 earnings as strong cash generation and cost control offset softer sales, but warned that tariffs and currency pressures are weighing on demand.

The company posted consolidated sales of €1.9 billion, down 5.2 percent year-on-year, with volumes declining 2.6 percent and price/mix effects stripping out a further 2.2 percent. Underlying EBIT slipped 16.2 percent to €171 million, delivering a margin of 8.8 percent compared with 9.9 percent a year earlier.

Free cash flow surged to €123 million from €43 million in the prior-year period, driven by a €135 million reduction in working capital and €21 million in cost savings as the company continued to streamline operations and rein in capex. Net debt fell to €327 million from €399 million despite a continuing €200 million share buyback programme, €74 million of which has been completed.

“We have continued to focus on what we can control best – cash flow and costs - and have significantly reduced overheads and working capital in H1 2025,” chief executive Yves Kerstens said. “Equally, I am very pleased with the hard work of our teams fighting for volumes in the current challenging markets.”

He added: “We are also taking further steps to make our business units more autonomous and agile. Therefore, I am very confident that we will come out of the current business environment stronger and more cost competitive than ever before.”

Bekaert said volumes were particularly strong in its Steel Wire Solutions and Rubber Reinforcement divisions in the United States and China, while European and Latin American demand lagged. Its Brazilian joint ventures delivered €24 million in net profit share, up from €20 million a year ago.

However, the group cautioned that growing trade tensions – including a rise in US steel tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent – and the weakening of the US dollar and Chinese yuan against the euro were eroding pricing power and softening orders.

“Following a period of resilience in Q2, the tariff uncertainty and weakening economic outlook has started to have an impact on demand,” Bekaert said.

The company now expects slightly lower full-year 2025 sales on a like-for-like basis, with an underlying EBIT margin of between 8.0 percent and 8.5 percent, down from 8.8 percent in the first half.