Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

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Shin-Etsu Chemical has announced a sweeping price revision for its entire range of silicone products, effective for all shipments from 1 May 2026. The adjustment applies to every product handled by the company’s Silicone Division, with increases set at a minimum of 10 percent. Actual revision rates will vary depending on the specific product category.

The decision follows recent developments in the Middle East, which have triggered sharp surges in crude oil and naphtha prices. This has led to a steep rise in the cost of oil-derived raw materials. Additionally, Shin-Etsu Chemical is confronting higher expenses related to manufacturing energy, product containers, packaging materials and logistics, all of which have contributed to the need for a price correction.

Despite exhausting all possible internal measures to reduce manufacturing costs, the company concluded that these efforts alone cannot absorb the mounting cost pressures. Shin-Etsu Chemical is now committed to fully communicating the situation to its product users and securing their understanding of the necessary selling price revisions.

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The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) recently participated in a Hari Raya Open House event. The gathering was organised by Malaysia’s Rubber Development Division, which falls under the Ministry of Plantation and Commodities. This occasion allowed the ANRPC to connect with important figures within the natural rubber sector. By bringing together various industry partners, the open house successfully created an atmosphere of goodwill and strengthened existing relationships.

The ANRPC has conveyed its genuine gratitude to the event’s hosts for their warm reception and thoughtful organisation. The association acknowledged the importance of uniting stakeholders in such a meaningful celebration, which helps reinforce shared goals and collaborative spirit across the sector.

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ARLANXEO has officially opened its Innovation Center Asia (ICA) in Changzhou, China, transforming the former Regional Technical Center into a full-fledged Asian innovation hub. This upgrade significantly strengthens the company’s global research and development network, with a clear focus on serving the local Chinese market as well as broader regional needs. The expansion reflects ARLANXEO’s commitment to advancing performance elastomers through targeted regional investment.

Now boasting larger facilities, an expanded team and new laboratory equipment, the Innovation Center Asia is equipped to handle rubber compounding, processing, physical testing, chemical analysis, battery prototyping and more. A dedicated chemistry lab has been added to support the nearby HNBR plant and global HNBR research activities. Located alongside ARLANXEO’s EPDM and HNBR plants in Changzhou, the centre fosters close customer collaboration to address evolving market needs. It also works in tandem with the company’s Dormagen, Germany, innovation centre, jointly developing new testing methods, exploring advanced technologies and delivering innovative product solutions worldwide.

The inauguration event featured speeches from Herman Dikland, ARLANXEO’s Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer, and Hong Sun, Managing Director of ARLANXEO China. Joining them at the ceremony were company representatives, key customers, local government officials and academic partners from various universities. Their presence underscored the collaborative spirit and shared interest in driving innovation forward.

Herman Dikland, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer, ARLANXEO, said, “Innovation is a core driver of ARLANXEO’s sustainable growth, and China plays an important role in our global innovation ecosystem. This state-of-the-art laboratory facility puts us in an excellent position to advance our R&D capabilities and reinforce our market position. We look forward to driving frontier innovation together with our passionate and creative China team while bringing China-based innovation into solutions for global markets.”

Hong Sun, Managing Director, ARLANXEO China, said, “The inauguration of the Innovation Center Asia reflects our commitment to supporting the rapid transformation of China’s rubber industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. With growing demand for advanced materials and customised formulations, the new centre will further strengthen our proximity to customers, enhance our agility in meeting market needs and better support the upgrading of the entire rubber industry.”

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ARLANXEO has strengthened its role in the synthetic rubber industry by expanding its marketing and sales agreement for EPDM rubber produced by Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company (PRC), a joint stock company formed under the laws of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This new arrangement became effective in February 2026, granting ARLANXEO exclusive rights to market all EPDM grades coming from PRC’s facilities, which will continue to be sold under the Keltan KSA product name.

This extension of the Keltan KSA business highlights ARLANXEO’s dedicated commitment to the worldwide EPDM market. By combining the original Keltan line with the Keltan KSA portfolio, the company now offers customers a uniquely broad and comprehensive range of EPDM solutions, ensuring a more complete service across diverse applications.

John Sawaya, Chief Business Officer, ARLANXEO, said, “Through this expanded agreement, we are further enhancing ARLANXEO’s position as the global supplier for EPDM synthetic rubber.”

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