Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

Kraton Corporation, a leading global producer of speciality polymers and high-value biobased products derived from by-products of pine wood pulping, has received an International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) PLUS certification for its manufacturing facility in Niort, France.

Kraton can now supply 100 percent ISCC PLUS-certified AMS and AMS Phenolics resins using a mass balance attribution approach thanks to the certification. Kraton's dedication to promoting the biobased and circular economy is further demonstrated by the Niort facility's accreditation. Kraton is committed to lowering carbon emissions and accelerating the shift to a more sustainable future by empowering clients to include more environmentally friendly products into their supply chains.

An independent multi-stakeholder project, the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) is a leading certification method that guarantees accurate mass-balancing bookkeeping and reporting of renewable and recycled materials across the supply chain.

Lana Culbert, Kraton Pine Chemicals VP of Marketing, said, “Our SYLVARES™ and SYLVATRAXX™ brands feature a range of high-performance AMS and AMS Phenolics resins used in speciality adhesives and tyre applications. Our ISCC PLUS journey began in 2021 with the certification of our Sandarne, Sweden facility. Earning this certification for our Niort plant marks a significant milestone, further expanding our portfolio of sustainable solutions.”

Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd. has said that it has clarified the process of rubber breakdown, a crucial element that affects tyre longevity, through joint research with Professor Gert Heinrich at Dresden University of Technology (Saxony State, Germany).

In a special session called ‘Combining Physics, Chemistry & Engineering of Rubber: A Symposium in Honor of Charles Goodyear Medalist Gert Heinrich’, which was held in honour of the Professor's medal-winning achievement, the findings were presented in an invited talk at the American Chemical Society, Rubber division, ACS 2025 Spring Technical Meeting held in Orlando, Florida, US, on 6 and 7 March. Professor Heinrich is a member of the Leibniz Institute of Polymer Research Dresden, which took part in the collaborative effort.

Tyre durability is determined by cracking processes, which result in the development of cracks and rips in a rubber substance. The endurance of rubber was previously mostly assessed using tearing tests, but there were still numerous unanswered concerns regarding the microscale structural alterations at the crack tip. This effort identified a factor that determines the start and propagation of cracks in rubber by analysing the force applied to a fracture tip using a simulation approach. In rubber, a crack tip undergoes dilatation deformation to create voids, or microvoids within the item. The fracture gets worse as the voids expand and come together. It was also discovered that the tension focused on the fracture tip is lessened when voids emerge.

The German Rubber Industry Association (Wdk) is advocating for a thorough and legally enforceable regulation of the end-of-waste status for Germany and the whole of Europe. The association is pusing for the circular economy to be strengthened for tyres.

Valuable secondary raw materials are still legally regarded as waste since there are no consistent standards for the end-of-waste status, according to Stephan Rau, Technical Director of the WDW. This restricts the market integration of sustainable recycled materials, impedes investments and creates legal uncertainties. “We call for a comprehensive and binding end-of-waste regulation for Germany and the whole of Europe to strengthen the recycling sector, facilitate investment in modern technologies, and sustainably reduce the CO₂ footprint of the rubber and tire industry,” he said.

In order to adhere to the prescribed waste hierarchy and stop illicit exports, Rau also emphasised that lawmakers must quantitatively and openly document waste tyre flows. He added that waste tyres should only be gathered by approved disposal companies and pre-sorted based on their intended use.

On the important role of mechanically recycled tyre granules and powder, Rau said, "This is an important secondary raw material that is already used in a variety of durable and safe products. A clearly defined end to its waste status must be made more economically viable. To ensure the market success of tyre granules, a risk-based approach to assessing chemical ingredients is essential. Binding limit values ​​must be assessed using a migration analysis, i.e. based on their bioavailability. Second, the use of tyre granule products must become mandatory in the construction industry and infrastructure projects. The goal is clear: Recycling must be economically viable."

Kuraray, a global speciality chemicals company and one of the largest suppliers of industrial polymers and synthetic microfibres, has received ISCC PLUS certification for its thermoplastic elastomers SEPTON and HYBRAR as well as Liquid Rubber produced at the Company’s Kashima Plant at Ibaraki Prefecture.

ISCC PLUS makes sure that certified products, such biomass and recycled raw materials, are appropriately handled throughout their supply chains, including the manufacturing process, by applying the mass-balance technique.

In the five years preceding up to its centenary in 2026, Kuraray is carrying out its medium-term management strategy, PASSION 2026. In order to achieve the long-term Kuraray Vision 2026 of being a speciality chemical company that grows sustainably by integrating new foundational platforms into its own technologies and contributing to customers, society and the planet, the company will keep growing its range of products that improve the natural and living environments.