Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

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HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS made a significant impact at InLEX KOREA 2026, the international defence exhibition hosted from 9 to 11 June at the Daejeon Convention Center. The company placed its advanced material technologies at the forefront, positioning them as future cornerstones of the defence industry.

The exhibition, organised by the Ministry of National Defense and the Army Headquarters, gathered military and civilian stakeholders to chart the sector’s trajectory. HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS used the platform to unveil defence applications of its proprietary carbon fibre, aramid and lyocell while actively building customer networks and hunting for global defence contracts.

Three specialised units collaborated on the ground. The Carbon Materials PU featured aerospace-grade propulsion tanks for drones and satellites alongside chopped fibre and 3K carbon fabrics. Concurrently, the Aramid PU presented ballistic helmets and body armour woven from heat-resistant, high-strength aramid yarns aimed at maximising soldier safety.

In a separate showcase, the Tire Reinforcement Materials PU introduced eco-friendly lyocell yarn and carbonised lyocell fabrics. The Aramid PU’s protective gear and the Carbon Materials PU’s lightweight composites collectively demonstrated how HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS is broadening the use of advanced composites in military applications.

Lim Jin Dal, Chief Executive Officer of HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS, said, “Through this exhibition, we hope to demonstrate how our advanced high-performance materials technologies can be applied to Korea’s defence industry. Building on our continuous R&D efforts and commitment to localising advanced materials, we will contribute to establishing a stable supply chain and continue growing together with the defence industry.”

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ARLANXEO and Covestro have deepened their partnership to enhance sustainability in synthetic rubber manufacturing. ARLANXEO has incorporated ISCC PLUS-certified chlorine from Covestro into its chloroprene rubber production, resulting in a marked decrease in the product environmental footprint of the Baypren portfolio. Covestro produces this certified chlorine using renewable electricity, thereby supporting lower greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain.

Beginning in January 2026, ARLANXEO’s entire chloroprene rubber output relies exclusively on ISCC PLUS-certified chlorine, representing a major advancement in the company’s long-term sustainability strategy. Depending on the product grade, this shift delivers an average 20 percent reduction in global warming potential compared to 2025 levels. As a critical raw material provider, Covestro has enabled this transition by ensuring a steady supply of the certified chlorine.

The adoption of ISCC PLUS-certified feedstocks strengthens ARLANXEO’s standing as a premier supplier of sustainable elastomer solutions for industries with aggressive climate goals, including automotive, construction, industrial manufacturing and adhesives. Additionally, ARLANXEO now offers Baypren Eco grades that combine certified chlorine with ISCC PLUS-certified butadiene.

These eco grades allow for even deeper environmental impact reductions while maintaining full performance, helping customers meet their own sustainability targets without compromising product quality.

Niels van der Aar, Head of Sustainability at ARLANXEO, said, “Integrating ISCC PLUS-certified materials into our production is a key step in reducing the environmental footprint of our CR products. It underlines our commitment to supporting customers with more sustainable material solutions while advancing transparency along the value chain by supplying corresponding product environmental footprint data for ARLANXEO’s entire CR product portfolio.”

Moritz Winterstein, Head of Trading Cluster Basic Chemicals EMEA at Covestro, said, “At Covestro, we support our customers in reducing emissions along the value chain by supplying more sustainable basic chemical raw materials from our multiple ISCC PLUS-certified production sites. Our collaboration with ARLANXEO demonstrates how certified raw materials and renewable electricity can contribute to lowering the product environmental footprint of downstream applications and support customers in achieving their sustainability targets.”

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The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) released its April 2026 report, highlighting rising prices despite lower production. Output fell 2.59 percent year-on-year due to the seasonal wintering period, dry weather across South and Southeast Asia and El Niño concerns. Brent crude surged to USD 117.29 per barrel, up 13.72 percent from March, driven by Middle East disruptions, which boosted centrifuged latex valuations.

Physical prices rose across all major grades. SMR-20 in Kuala Lumpur increased 4.61 percent to USD 2.13 per kilogramme, while STR-20 in Bangkok climbed 3.53 percent to USD 2.27. RSS-3 in Bangkok jumped 8.10 percent to USD 2.77, and RSS-4 in Kottayam rose 6.53 percent to USD 2.50. Centrifuged latex in Kuala Lumpur gained 12.47 percent to USD 1.93 per kilogramme. Futures markets remained firm, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange September 2026 contract averaging CNY 17,009 per tonne.

For 2026, global production is projected at 15.322 million tonnes, up 2.2 percent, with upward revisions for China and Malaysia. Consumption is forecast to grow 1.3 percent to 15.550 million tonnes, driven by electric vehicle production and recovery in rubber goods. In April alone, estimated output was 772,000 tonnes, while consumption reached 1,235,000 tonnes, a 2.3 percent annual rise.

Trade patterns diverged sharply. China’s imports fell 13.35 percent to 538,200 tonnes due to high inventories, while India’s imports surged 38.79 percent on strong manufacturing demand. Thailand’s exports contracted 4.28 percent to 378,000 tonnes, but Cambodia’s exports soared 106.49 percent. The Malaysian ringgit strengthened to near 3.96 against the US dollar, while the Thai baht stabilised around 3.07 after volatile trading.

The macroeconomic environment remained tense, with US-China trade friction, the Middle East conflict and the US Federal Reserve holding interest rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. The near-term outlook for natural rubber is cautiously positive but subject to heightened volatility.

The ANRPC reaffirmed its commitment to objective analysis for the sustainable development of the natural rubber sector. Member governments and stakeholders were encouraged to use the report’s findings for evidence-based policies.

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Indorama Advanced Oxides, a subsidiary of Indorama Corporation, has successfully restarted production at Huelva facility in Spain, achieving its first tonne of Titanium Dioxide (TiO₂) output. The plant, which has an annual capacity of 80,000 tonnes, represents the company’s strategic entry into the global titanium dioxide market. This milestone follows Indorama’s recent completion of the site acquisition from Venator P&A Spain.

The restart marks a crucial step in returning the facility to full operation after the acquisition, ensuring continued supply of the essential white pigment to customers across Europe and global markets. The Huelva team demonstrated strong collaboration and safe execution in resuming activities. This white pigment remains critical for the European paints, coatings and plastics industries.

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