Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

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In mixing room, rotor seal oil is chronically contaminated by carbon black, oxidation products, metal wear debris and mechanical impurities. During the vulcanisation process, hydraulic oil frequently suffers from contamination and system malfunctions caused by the ingress of moisture and particulates, as well as the formation of sludge and varnish. When oil shifts from a protective medium for equipment to a source of operational risk, profits are continuously – and often invisibly – drained away.

For a typical tyre factory, oil-related expenditures can reach millions of dollars annually. However, industrial waste oil should not be viewed merely as hazardous waste awaiting disposal. Through TMSI’s advanced oil purification and regeneration technologies, contaminated oil can be purified, regenerated and reintroduced into the production cycle – transforming it from a one-time consumable into a recyclable production resource that delivers quantifiable, sustainable value.

MIXER SEAL OIL REGENERATION: 90% OFF-LINE RECYCLING

Seal oil in internal mixer rotors suffers from severe contamination and rapid consumption. Traditional filtration methods struggle to simultaneously address oxides, acidic substances, mechanical impurities and micro-contaminants. Centred on patented electro-sorption and micron-level precision filtration technologies, the TMSI regeneration system selectively captures polar contaminants. It transforms waste oil into reusable, regenerated oil while maximising the retention of the base oil’s active components.

The system enables 90 percent off-line recycling of waste oil, with a processing capacity of 1.5 tonnes per 8-hour batch. Calculations for a typical project – such as a tyre manufacturer generating 240 tonnes of waste seal oil annually – show potential comprehensive annual savings of approximately USD 280,000 and a payback period of less than one year. Furthermore, the use of clean oil minimises scratching on sealing surfaces, prevents sticking caused by gum deposits and reduces wear on critical components, thereby lowering the risks of leakage, downtime and quality fluctuations.

HYDRAULIC OIL PURIFICATION: NO SHUTDOWN, NO OIL CHANGE, 100% CLOSED-LOOP ONLINE PURIFICATION

The core value of hydraulic oil purification is not only to extend the life of the oil but also to prevent maintenance from interrupting production. The TMSI hydraulic oil online circulation purification system is connected to the hydraulic station in a bypass mode and continuously removes moisture, particulate matter, sludge, paint film and oxidised pollutants during equipment operation, allowing the hydraulic oil to recover its performance in a closed-loop cycle, instead of waiting until the oil is out of control before shutting down for oil changes.

The system flow rate covers 30 L/h to 150 L/h, adapting to different tank volumes; after purification, the moisture can be reduced to less than 0.03 percent, and the cleanliness is better than NAS level 8 and can be further improved to approximately NAS level 7 in actual applications. Under normal circumstances, the hydraulic oil change interval is about 1–2 years; when contamination increases, it may be shortened to 3–6 months. Online purification not only reduces the purchase of new oil and the disposal of hazardous waste but also helps reduce the risk of valve core sticking, lagging action, hydraulic cylinder corrosion and internal leakage, ensures the stability of the mould closing force of the vulcanising machine and the consistency of the vulcanisation quality and allows equipment management to shift from post-repair to pre-protection.

PATENTED COMPOSITE FILTER ELEMENT: ENHANCING THE PURIFICATION CAPABILITIES OF EXISTING SYSTEMS

For hydraulic systems already in operation, the TMSI patented composite filter element offers a streamlined, rapid upgrade path. Designed to fit existing system interfaces, it enables an immediate boost in fluid purification performance – enhancing the equipment’s ability to remove water and impurities while improving acid values – simply through a direct replacement of the filter element.

Leveraging material modification and structural optimisation, the composite filter element achieves multi-stage purification within a single unit. It offers filtration precision ranging from 0.5 to 30 μm and consistently maintains oil moisture levels below 300 ppm through recirculating purification. Its high dirt-holding and water-absorbing structure extends service life; under standard operating conditions, the replacement interval reaches six months or longer, allowing existing equipment to achieve superior, long-lasting fluid management capabilities with minimal investment.

FROM HAZARDOUS WASTE COST TO CIRCULAR ASSET: REDEFINING THE VALUE OF INDUSTRIAL OIL

From North America to Latin America and from Asia to Europe, TMSI’s oil purification solutions are consistently proving stability, adaptability and long-term operational value for more and more manufacturers.

TMSI is transforming industrial oil consumption from the traditional ‘consume-replace-dispose’ model to a circular ‘purify-regenerate-reuse’ model, an approach successfully implemented in the tyre industry.

When waste oil ceases to be merely a cost item on a hazardous waste list and instead becomes a circular asset – capable of being purified, re-evaluated and reintroduced into the production system – fluid management shifts from a routine maintenance task to a strategic factor directly impacting consumable costs, downtime losses, investment payback periods and ESG performance. Returning waste oil to the production line represents more than just an upgrade in oil purification; it paves a new path for tyre factories towards lean, low-carbon and highly resilient operations.

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Sustainability has become critical for the tyre industry due to its heavy reliance on fossil-based raw materials, significant carbon footprint across the product lifecycle and the massive volume of end-of-life tyres generated annually. Shifting towards renewable, bio-based and recycled materials helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve resources, minimise microplastic pollution from tyre wear and address regulatory and consumer demands for greener mobility solutions. Without accelerated innovation, the industry risks falling short of global climate targets while facing supply chain vulnerabilities and reputational challenges.

The global tyre market is valued at around USD 290 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 299 billion in 2026 as per MarkNtel. It is projected to attain USD 387 billion by 2032, registering a CAGR of 4.39 percent during 2026–2032. Interestingly, the Passenger Car segment leads the global tyre market with approximately 42 percent of total demand. Radial tyres dominate the global tyre market with around 88 percent share. Furthermore, Asia-Pacific holds the largest regional share at approximately 37 percent.

In an exclusive interaction with Tyre Trends, C Harimohan, Head of Corporate R&D (Materials and Compounding) at Yokohama Off-Highway Tires (YOHT), shares his views on the tyre industry’s push towards true sustainability. He highlights the technical, economic and regulatory hurdles that lie ahead as the sector targets ambitious 2050 goals.

THE SUSTAINABILITY IMPERATIVE

It is no secret that the tyre industry is undergoing a profound shift, be it managing raw material supply chain, sustainability targets and geopolitical challenges, among others.

“See, I think we are undergoing a very special kind of scenario now,” Harimohan observes. While the core manufacturing process and raw material mixes have remained relatively stable, sustainability has moved from a ‘fashion word’ of a decade ago to a serious business priority.

“In the last two to three years, or let us say three to five years, we have started taking it more seriously because almost all the companies have declared that by 2050, 100 percent of the raw materials would be either renewable or recycled,” he says.

This target, however, comes with limited current visibility on delivery. Today, roughly 65 to 70 percent of tyre raw materials are derived from fossil sources, primarily crude oil.

“Around 30 percent only comes from the natural rubber; the remaining major part becomes a synthetic rubber, carbon black and almost all the chemicals which are derived from crude,” he explains. The central challenge is transforming these fossil-dependent components into renewable or recycled alternatives.

Recycling, though not new, presents its own limitations. “When you devulcanise the rubber, the kind of strength it has got originally, it is dropping drastically,” Harimohan notes.

“So it is not a 100 percent one-to-one substitution of the original compound or raw materials what you have. So you cannot go beyond a level,” he shares. This creates an inherent performance compromise that undermines the very idea of sustainability if safety and durability suffer.

BALANCING PERFORMANCE, QUALITY AND PRICE

The trade-off between sustainability, performance and cost emerges as one of the industry’s most pressing dilemmas. Harimohan poses the critical question, “What about trade-off between performance, quality as well as price? Because you could have the best recycled tyre, but if it does not perform as per consumer expectations or as per what is expected from its non-sustainable tyre or what people are used to, what are the challenges that have taken place?”

Even a near-100 percent sustainable tyre remains commercially unviable at present. “I can conceptually make a close to 100 percent, if not 100 percent, you can say a sustainable tyre which is produced from only renewable or recycled materials. But then it has to be at least three to four times the cost or the price would be three to four times what it is today. But then there has to be somebody who will pay for it,” he says.

Harimohan further explains that without external pressure, market adoption will be slow. “Unless and until it is enforced by a regulatory or by government, I do not think it is going to happen.”

He believes, “Even if we can market it as sustainable tyre, unless and until there is somebody who can pay for it, I think it is not going to happen.” Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about ongoing innovation.

“Most of us, almost all the R&Ds across the world are working towards it, how to make it more and more towards that 100 percent level, but at the same time without having a damage to the performance and almost at the same price you should be able to sell it,” says the executive. He anticipates meaningful progress over the next decade or two.

SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURES AND THE ROAD AHEAD

Geopolitical tensions have added further complexity to an already intricate global supply chain. A single tyre incorporates ‘at least 60 to 70 different raw materials’ sourced from around the world. “All the geopolitical situations are affecting significantly on all the procurement, the supply chains are getting affected and it is affecting the whole production, supply of the tyre,” Harimohan confirms. “Tyre is no different. It is getting affected.”

On the question of segment-wise adoption, he sees OEM-driven momentum leading the way. “This is happening in almost across the segments, but I feel this is a bit more driven by the OEMs. So I think it may be the PCR segment which should be moving a little far ahead of others or even the two-wheeler would be going a little ahead of other segments,” he says, noting slower progress expected in off-highway and OTR applications.

Responding to a query on new trends in the industry, Harimohan acknowledges there lies huge potential for disruptive technologies. “I feel something will come to gradually replace the tyres. Like airless tyre could be one of the examples, there can be flat tracks coming,” he remarks.

Despite the industry’s traditional inertia, he believes change is inevitable, “Even though tyre is more of like a traditional and there is a lot of inertia to change, but I think going forward, there should be or there would be something which could potentially replace tyre all together. I mean, I think we should hope for that.”

The path to a fully sustainable tyre industry is neither simple nor short, but Harimohan’s insights reveal a sector actively confronting difficult trade-offs.

With continued R&D focus and potential regulatory support, the promise of high-performance, affordable and truly green tyres is still some decades away from becoming a reality.

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The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has released its Monthly Natural Rubber Statistical Report for June 2026, documenting a period of price resilience within the sector. This stability persisted despite seasonal supply improvements and firm downstream demand, set against a backdrop of significant geopolitical friction and macroeconomic volatility. The month of July presented a starkly different energy landscape compared to June, as renewed regional conflicts and major shipping route disruptions replaced the brief period of stability following the provisional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation in Middle Eastern tensions exerted considerable upward pressure on global energy markets. Brent crude oil averaged approximately USD 83.76 per barrel in July, with the spot price surging to USD 96.95 per barrel by the end of the month. This sharp increase was primarily attributed to fears of potential restrictions on oil shipments through the strategic waterway, amplifying supply risks and embedding a higher risk premium within oil pricing structures.

Physical natural rubber prices exhibited divergent trends across major grades during the month. The Kuala Lumpur market saw SMR-20 average USD 2.22 per kilogramme, representing a month-on-month decline, while STR-20 in Bangkok followed a similar downward trajectory. RSS-3 also registered a decrease, contrasting with RSS-4, which posted a notable gain. Latex-in-bulk prices softened over the same period. Trade flows showed mixed results, as Chinese imports contracted, while significant import growth was recorded for India, Viet Nam and Malaysia. On the export front, shipments from Thailand, Viet Nam and Malaysia advanced, whereas Cambodia and Indonesia experienced moderate declines.

For the full year 2026, the ANRPC projects global production to expand by over two percent to reach 15.279 million tonnes, driven primarily by anticipated increases in Thailand, China, India and Malaysia. However, on a monthly comparative basis, July 2026 production is estimated to be over five percent lower than the same month in the previous year, though seasonal recovery is expected in key producer nations. Global demand is forecast to grow modestly by 0.4 percent for the year, with consumption in July rising year-on-year, supported by robust tyre manufacturing and electric vehicle-related demand, as well as a strong manufacturing performance and record auto sales in India.

Currency valuations saw the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht trade within defined ranges against the US dollar. Futures markets reflected the mixed sentiment, with the SHFE September 2026 contract averaging 16,802.61 CNY per tonne, while the SGX September 2026 contract averaged USD 2.14 per kilogramme, both registering month-on-month declines. The overall data suggests a market navigating the complex interplay of supply recovery, shifting trade dynamics and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

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Flexsys, a prominent entity in material science and advanced tyre additives, has announced two significant advancements in its quest to develop a substitute for the chemical 6PPD. The company is progressing towards a new era in tyre manufacturing, having identified two primary molecular candidates that will undergo extensive evaluation. This development follows a prior announcement in November 2025, where Flexsys revealed it had created the first viable alternative to the established antidegradant.

The two finalist molecules have successfully passed rigorous internal and external testing, meeting stringent safety, performance and environmental standards. Significantly, neither compound belongs to the PPD chemical family, and crucially, they do not produce a quinone transformation product during usage. With the initial screening phase complete, Flexsys is now concentrating on expanded testing for these candidates, with the ultimate goal of selecting a definitive replacement for 6PPD in tyre production.

In a parallel effort to ensure environmental safety, Flexsys has formalised a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey. This collaboration is designed to independently and thoroughly assess the potential effects of the two molecules on aquatic ecosystems. Building upon a previous CRADA with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, this new agreement with the USGS represents a critical phase in determining the complete aquatic toxicity profile. The research will employ novel testing methodologies that extend beyond standard chemical registration requirements.

Under the agreement, scientists from the USGS Western Fisheries Research Center, alongside other USGS divisions, will study the molecules and their breakdown products. The focus will be on the impact on Pacific salmon and other aquatic species, utilising innovative cell-line research to pioneer new testing methods. This approach aims to create alternative assessment tools applicable to a wide range of chemicals. The CRADA formalises and expands upon preliminary testing that had already commenced at the research centre.

Flexsys acknowledged the support from the Economic Development Administration’s Tech Hubs Program, as a member of the Akron Sustainable Polymers Tech Hub. Concurrently, the company is optimising the process chemistry for both candidates to facilitate efficient, large-scale production. Both molecules utilise intermediate chemistry similar to that used for 6PPD, allowing the industry to leverage existing manufacturing assets. This strategic approach is expected to promote faster adoption and reduce overall investment costs while Flexsys continues its engagement with global regulatory agencies for commercial approval.

Carl Brech, Chief Executive Officer, Flexsys, said, “The tyre industry has been waiting for two things: a molecule that actually works and independent proof that it is safe. As of today, both are in hand or in motion. With tyre and environmental safety testing underway, the focus has shifted from finding a potential replacement to thorough validation, regulatory approval, scale-up and industry adoption.”

Neil Smith, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer, said, “This marks a significant milestone for our team, and we’re pleased to announce we’ve narrowed our efforts to two final molecules that continue to meet our strict targets for in-rubber performance, scalability, toxicity profile and environmental sustainability. The selected alternative must be reliable and safe, not only today but for decades to come. USGS expertise provides independent evaluation with a level of rigour we could not execute on our own. We are proud to help pioneer novel toxicity-testing methods and eager to see the results.”

Michael Schmidt, Center Director, U.S. Geological Survey Western Fisheries Research Center, said, “USGS has spent the past five years studying the effects of 6PPD on aquatic species and developing innovative methods to screen the safety of potential alternatives. For nearly a century, the Western Fisheries Research Center has provided objective science to support management of aquatic species across the Western United States.”

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