Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

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The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has released its Monthly Natural Rubber Statistical Report for June 2026, documenting a period of price resilience within the sector. This stability persisted despite seasonal supply improvements and firm downstream demand, set against a backdrop of significant geopolitical friction and macroeconomic volatility. The month of July presented a starkly different energy landscape compared to June, as renewed regional conflicts and major shipping route disruptions replaced the brief period of stability following the provisional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation in Middle Eastern tensions exerted considerable upward pressure on global energy markets. Brent crude oil averaged approximately USD 83.76 per barrel in July, with the spot price surging to USD 96.95 per barrel by the end of the month. This sharp increase was primarily attributed to fears of potential restrictions on oil shipments through the strategic waterway, amplifying supply risks and embedding a higher risk premium within oil pricing structures.

Physical natural rubber prices exhibited divergent trends across major grades during the month. The Kuala Lumpur market saw SMR-20 average USD 2.22 per kilogramme, representing a month-on-month decline, while STR-20 in Bangkok followed a similar downward trajectory. RSS-3 also registered a decrease, contrasting with RSS-4, which posted a notable gain. Latex-in-bulk prices softened over the same period. Trade flows showed mixed results, as Chinese imports contracted, while significant import growth was recorded for India, Viet Nam and Malaysia. On the export front, shipments from Thailand, Viet Nam and Malaysia advanced, whereas Cambodia and Indonesia experienced moderate declines.

For the full year 2026, the ANRPC projects global production to expand by over two percent to reach 15.279 million tonnes, driven primarily by anticipated increases in Thailand, China, India and Malaysia. However, on a monthly comparative basis, July 2026 production is estimated to be over five percent lower than the same month in the previous year, though seasonal recovery is expected in key producer nations. Global demand is forecast to grow modestly by 0.4 percent for the year, with consumption in July rising year-on-year, supported by robust tyre manufacturing and electric vehicle-related demand, as well as a strong manufacturing performance and record auto sales in India.

Currency valuations saw the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht trade within defined ranges against the US dollar. Futures markets reflected the mixed sentiment, with the SHFE September 2026 contract averaging 16,802.61 CNY per tonne, while the SGX September 2026 contract averaged USD 2.14 per kilogramme, both registering month-on-month declines. The overall data suggests a market navigating the complex interplay of supply recovery, shifting trade dynamics and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

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Flexsys, a prominent entity in material science and advanced tyre additives, has announced two significant advancements in its quest to develop a substitute for the chemical 6PPD. The company is progressing towards a new era in tyre manufacturing, having identified two primary molecular candidates that will undergo extensive evaluation. This development follows a prior announcement in November 2025, where Flexsys revealed it had created the first viable alternative to the established antidegradant.

The two finalist molecules have successfully passed rigorous internal and external testing, meeting stringent safety, performance and environmental standards. Significantly, neither compound belongs to the PPD chemical family, and crucially, they do not produce a quinone transformation product during usage. With the initial screening phase complete, Flexsys is now concentrating on expanded testing for these candidates, with the ultimate goal of selecting a definitive replacement for 6PPD in tyre production.

In a parallel effort to ensure environmental safety, Flexsys has formalised a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey. This collaboration is designed to independently and thoroughly assess the potential effects of the two molecules on aquatic ecosystems. Building upon a previous CRADA with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, this new agreement with the USGS represents a critical phase in determining the complete aquatic toxicity profile. The research will employ novel testing methodologies that extend beyond standard chemical registration requirements.

Under the agreement, scientists from the USGS Western Fisheries Research Center, alongside other USGS divisions, will study the molecules and their breakdown products. The focus will be on the impact on Pacific salmon and other aquatic species, utilising innovative cell-line research to pioneer new testing methods. This approach aims to create alternative assessment tools applicable to a wide range of chemicals. The CRADA formalises and expands upon preliminary testing that had already commenced at the research centre.

Flexsys acknowledged the support from the Economic Development Administration’s Tech Hubs Program, as a member of the Akron Sustainable Polymers Tech Hub. Concurrently, the company is optimising the process chemistry for both candidates to facilitate efficient, large-scale production. Both molecules utilise intermediate chemistry similar to that used for 6PPD, allowing the industry to leverage existing manufacturing assets. This strategic approach is expected to promote faster adoption and reduce overall investment costs while Flexsys continues its engagement with global regulatory agencies for commercial approval.

Carl Brech, Chief Executive Officer, Flexsys, said, “The tyre industry has been waiting for two things: a molecule that actually works and independent proof that it is safe. As of today, both are in hand or in motion. With tyre and environmental safety testing underway, the focus has shifted from finding a potential replacement to thorough validation, regulatory approval, scale-up and industry adoption.”

Neil Smith, Chief Technology and Sustainability Officer, said, “This marks a significant milestone for our team, and we’re pleased to announce we’ve narrowed our efforts to two final molecules that continue to meet our strict targets for in-rubber performance, scalability, toxicity profile and environmental sustainability. The selected alternative must be reliable and safe, not only today but for decades to come. USGS expertise provides independent evaluation with a level of rigour we could not execute on our own. We are proud to help pioneer novel toxicity-testing methods and eager to see the results.”

Michael Schmidt, Center Director, U.S. Geological Survey Western Fisheries Research Center, said, “USGS has spent the past five years studying the effects of 6PPD on aquatic species and developing innovative methods to screen the safety of potential alternatives. For nearly a century, the Western Fisheries Research Center has provided objective science to support management of aquatic species across the Western United States.”

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Aircraft tyre retreading may resemble truck tyre retreading on the factory floor, but the similarities end there. Stringent US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight, exhaustive inspection protocols and extensive documentation make it one of the most tightly regulated segments of the tyre industry. According to President of Central Marketing Inc., these rigorous requirements coupled with high upfront investment and the dominance of major tyre manufacturers have created a niche market where only a limited number of players can compete.

Tire Retread Information Bureau mentions that over 100,000 retreaded tyres are done annually in United States, while another report published by the United States International Trade Commission on retreaded tyres in 2012 stated approximately 80 percent of aircraft tyres in US are retreaded and that retreading saves commercial and military operators over USD 100 million annually.

Since publication of the report over a decade ago, the state of the tyre retreading industry remains quite optimistic. Market Research Future estimated that US aircraft tyre retreading market will reach USD 1.42 billion by 2035, up from USD 948.2 million in 2025.

However, aircraft tyre retreading demands for stricter regulatory oversight than conventional truck and bus tyre retreading.

According to President Central Marketing Inc Edd Burleson, “FAA certification, rigorous inspections, extensive documentation and high entry barriers define the sector, where major tyre manufacturers dominate and independent retreaders serve mainly private aircraft operators.”

In a tete-a-tete with Tyre Trends, he delves into the dynamics of the aircraft retreading industry of United States and North America as his company has been a supplier of retreading machinery in these markets for over four decades.

“Although aircraft tyre retreading follows the hot retreading process, with many of the same steps seen in truck and bus radial retreading, the level of oversight is substantially higher. The process is fundamentally similar but is much more tightly controlled,” contended Burleson.

Everything is Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certified. The inspection procedures are much stricter, there are more process controls, much more record-keeping and the Federal Aviation Administration oversees the entire process. The basic manufacturing process is similar, but the level of control and inspection is significantly higher.

He added that the dominance of major tyre manufacturers and strict regulatory requirements make it difficult for independent companies to enter the sector. And that’s because the smaller independent retreaders mainly service the private aircraft market rather than the major commercial airlines.

“Not everyone has the inspection capabilities or qualifications required to obtain an FAA license to retread aircraft tyres. It’s a speciality market and different from commercial truck tyre or OTR retreading,” he added.

Obtaining regulatory approval requires substantial investment before any licence is granted. A company will have to establish a plant, demonstrate its entire retreading process, undergo inspections and prove that it has the capability to perform aircraft tyre retreading.

“It’s not simply a matter of applying for a license and getting approval. You take on the risk of investing in the facility and processes before knowing whether you’ll actually be approved,” Burleson said.

In addition, entering the market isn’t easy because new plants will compete against major players like Goodyear, Michelin, Dunlop and Bridgestone. Hence, as an independent company, it’s generally conducive to enter the private aircraft market.

Burleson said the industry’s structure further limits competition because manufacturers sell tyre services rather than tyres themselves.

“The major players manufacture the new tyres and they’re not selling tyres but the service, most which is charged per cycle,” he said.

MARKET DYNAMICS

Aircraft tyre retreading remains a stable and highly specialised market. “The market across North America is well developed because airlines routinely retread their tyres as part of their operating model,” said Burleson.

The airlines themselves are responsible for maintaining the tyres including tyre pressure and general maintenance. The tyre company is responsible for supplying the tyres to the airlines and get paid on a per cycle basis. A cycle here means an entire take-off to landing cycle.

The number of times an aircraft tyre can be retreaded depends on the tyre size and aircraft type. “Some aircraft tyres can be retreaded two or three times, while others can be retreaded five or six times,” Burleson said.

Retreading significantly lowers operating costs for airlines by extending tyre life, he added. As a result, the cost per cycle comes down substantially. If airlines charged the same cost per cycle while using only new tyres, it would be three to four times more expensive.

The company supplies shearography inspection systems, repair machines, buffing machines, rubber extruders, laser engraving systems and curing presses. Its clientele includes Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear, Dunlop and one independent aircraft retreader, Wilkerson, in United States.

Besides, Central Marketing has been a servicing supplier to the tyre retreading industry as well as off-the-road, light truck, aircraft and the new tyre industries for 49 years. Its top-of-the-line computerised products have varying degrees of automation. Its base of operations is in Colonial Heights with a staff of 24 people.

Burleson described aircraft retreading as a stable market with limited growth because of the relatively small number of retreaders.

“The market is limited by the number of retreaders so it’s more of a stable market. Growth is typically around 3–5 percent annually. There’s no major boom like you’d see in an emerging market,” he said.

Unlike commercial truck tyre retreading, the aircraft sector in North America has not been affected by imports from Asian manufacturers.

“Bridgestone has one plant in US, Michelin has one, Goodyear has two and the total number of aircraft retreading plants isn’t very large,” Burleson said.

Outside United States, the market is even smaller.

“There’s a small aircraft retreader in Mexico and there isn’t any aircraft tyre retreading in Canada,” he said.

MAKING THE RETREADS

Aircraft retreading equipment differs from machinery used in commercial tyre retreading because aircraft tyres require greater precision during processing. The tyres are much more difficult to handle and buff.

Repairs are limited to very specific tolerances. Companies have to ensure their process doesn’t damage the body plies during buffing. There may be need to replace breaker belts and perform other specialised repairs.

Each stage of production must comply with tightly controlled specifications. Every step of the process has to meet a specific specification.

“If the temperature drops by more than a set number of degrees during curing, then the tyre may no longer be acceptable. Aircraft retreading is governed by much stricter rules and regulations because of the nature of the application. You’re transporting people, so there can be absolutely no compromise on safety,” Burleson said.

Burleson identified shearography as the most significant technological advancement in aircraft tyre retreading.

“I would say the biggest advancement has been shearography. Another important development is laser engraving. Each time an aircraft tyre is retreaded, it’s assigned an ‘R level’ to ascertain the exact retread generation,” he said.

Laser engraving the sidewall makes record-keeping much more accurate compared with using stencils. Considerable progress has been made in buffing technology through computerised profiles too.

Automation is increasing in selected areas, although regulations limit the use of artificial intelligence as a trained human inspector must still verify and confirm the results.

SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS

Aircraft retreading makes a significant contribution to sustainability by extending tyre life as each tyre is retreaded between three to six times.

The economics of cost savings and inexistence of Asian imports have also written an optimistic future for aircraft tyre retreading in US till now, but challenges are present for retreading machinery suppliers.

“We don’t make the machines ourselves but procure it from different countries for the US market. The challenge is providing equipment that meets our customers’ requirements and being able to service that equipment when it’s installed in their plants,” said Burleson.

However, he said that the broader retreading industry is undergoing consolidation. “In US, the East Coast is probably the largest market, followed by the West Coast, where the major population centres are,” he said.

Retreading plants are becoming larger in the TBR segment, processing higher volumes and adopting more automation. At the same time, smaller retreaders are finding it increasingly difficult to compete and many are going out of business.

Aircraft retreading is insulated from those market trends because of its unique business model.

Summing up the sector, Burleson reiterated that aircraft tyre retreading should not be viewed in the same way as commercial tyre retreading.

“The main thing people need to understand is that aircraft retreading is a speciality market. Although the process follows many of the same basic steps as commercial tyre retreading, it’s performed under much stricter controls because of the critical nature of its application. It’s not something that anyone can simply enter. It’s a highly specialised industry. Even though it’s still retreading, it shouldn’t be viewed in the same way as the normal commercial TBR market,” he noted.

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The Government of Kerala has approved the twelfth phase of the Rubber Production Incentive Scheme, extending support to natural rubber growers through a guaranteed price mechanism.

The scheme is designed to ensure a price of INR 250 per kilogram for RSS 4 grade sheet rubber. Growers who are not yet enrolled may register for the programme until 23 October 2026, according to an official statement issued on 6 August in Kottayam.

Applicants seeking new registration must submit an Aadhaar card, bank passbook copy, current year land tax receipt and a photograph to their respective Rubber Producers’ Societies. Existing participants are required to renew their registration by providing land tax receipts for the 2026–27 period.

The release added that sale invoices or purchase bills submitted under the scheme must originate from licensed dealers who comply with statutory return requirements. Further details are available through the nearest Rubber Board office.

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