Is Natural Rubber under mortal threat? Is there a possibility that factors like climate change, diseases etc. will bring the plantation industry to its knees?

It is a fact that the traditional rubber growing regions in almost all rubber producing countries in Asia are increasingly constrained by adverse effects of Climate Change. The yield from Hevea in traditional regions is impacted by extreme weather, recurrent cyclones, depression rains and flash floods. The last couple of years have seen interruption to tapping due to unforeseen rains and floods. Another major constraining factor is the recurrent outbreak of new diseases. For example, the outbreak of a new fungal leaf disease (Pestalotiopsis leaf fall disease) reported in Indonesia in 2018 has now spread into around 387,000 ha of mature rubber trees in the country. An estimated 141,000 ha in Thailand, 16,000 ha in Malaysia and 4,000 ha in Sri Lanka are reportedly affected by new fungal leaf diseases.

The low rubber prices that continued over several years resulted in poor maintenance of rubber holdings in almost all producing countries. As resource-starved farmers could not apply fertilizers or adopt proper crop protection measures over several years, rubber trees became weak and lost their resistance to diseases and extreme weather. It is striking to note that the root cause of the decline in yield is the unattractive prices and the resultant poor maintenance of holdings. A major trend reversal of prices can bring glaring positive changes in the natural rubber production sector. The potential national average yield (i.e., the annual production from a unit hectare of tapped trees) is 20 to 30% higher than what is realized now. For example, the average yield in India is currently 1,400 kg per hectare.  But a favorable price can increase the average yield to the range of 1,750-1,800 kg. The country had realized the average yield of 1,823 kg in 2012 when the prices ruled high.  Moreover, a large extent of mature trees which are currently left untapped in the country will come back to production once farmers find the prices attractive.  The country has around 200,000 hectares of mature trees which are left untapped.

More specifically, it is the uneconomic return from the venture that hinders the natural rubber production sector. There is no mortal threat to the supply base as far as prices stay remunerative and the net profit from the venture is attractive. No industry can sustain for a long if it is economically unviable and natural rubber is no exception.

Can a COVID19 like pandemic impact NR industry long term? Do plantations have an effective healthcare plan to ensure labourers’ health and safety?

NR sector globally has almost fully recovered from the impact of the Covide-19. This is particularly true with reference to the global production, consumption, trade, and prices of natural rubber. The prices in key physical markets had crossed over the pre-covid level even by October 2020 and firmed up further since February 2021. 

It is true that the production and processing sectors in Thailand and Malaysia are partly hindered as cross-border travel restrictions prevent migrant workers from neighboring countries to return to works. This issue, to a large extent, is resolved by making use of local workers by providing them necessary skills training. Coming to the downstream manufacturing sector, large number of debt-burden units in the MSME sector are reportedly struggling hard to bring their businesses back to normal.  On the other side, large-scale manufacturing units, particularly those in auto-tyre manufacturing, have made V-shaped recovery driven by the pent-up momentum generated on lifting of the lockdowns. For healthcare rubber products such as rubber gloves, the epidemic has been a major boon. Taking the global rubber industry as a whole, the industry has already come out from the impact of the pandemic.

Workers engaged in large plantations are provided with social security and healthcare facilities as per the regulatory provisions being followed by the governments in the respective countries.

What are the chances of NR getting totally replaced by alternative rubbers? Will this happen? If so, how soon?

NR getting totally replaced by any alternative material is an impossible event in any case. The relative share of NR in the total quantity of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber and synthetic rubber) globally consumed was less than 30% during early 1970s. From that low level, the relative share of NR has gone up to nearly 50% as of now (47.2% in 2020). Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are not competing each other because technical considerations limit the scope of substitution between the two.

Lack of sufficient economic benefits is considered to be a reason for planters looking for alternate crops that can bring faster financial returns. How real is this? How much of rubber plantations have been replaced by other crops?

A total extent of nearly 0.6 million hectares of rubber trees was estimated to have cut down during 2015-2020 period in Thailand, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, and India for cultivation of other crops or for conversion of land for non-farm uses. The details are given below:

In the case of Thailand, farmers are offered attractive cash incentive (More than US$3500 per hectare) by the government for removing aged rubber trees and planting other crops. It means, the shift from rubber in Thailand is largely policy driven. The case of Thailand is an exception. Generally speaking, the crop shift from rubber over the past few years is caused by the unattractive net profit from the venture.

Is plantation industry too slow to modernise itself, technologically as well as in terms of attracting skilled labor?

It is a fact that technological progress is severely constrained in the smallholder-dominated rubber production sector. The unattractive prices that prevailed over the period since 2015 made the farmers deprived of resources. Although high-yielding clones are available, farmers are generally postponing the replating of aged low-yielding trees due to their inability to meet the huge replanting cost. Another factor that prevents smallholders from replanting is the uncertainty of the farmers over the long-term prospects of rubber cultivation. Unattractive prices have also discouraged farmers from adopting good agricultural practices. Poor return from the venture has compelled farmers to discontinue the application of fertilizers, pest and disease management measures, and proper maintenance of holdings. Larger section of farmers has discontinued the use of stimulants and rain-guarded tapping. However, technological progress continued in large plantations owned by corporates, enterprises, and the public sector.

NR supply has always been unstable due to various reasons. Is this prompting manufacturers to look for other options?

There is no serios supply constraint or supply uncertainty as of now except the seasonal shortage.  Moreover, all the producing countries have huge potential to increase their supply if the prices become attractive.  This point was elaborated earlier.

Is there a campaign being run by alternative rubber sector to put pressure on NR industry?

As stated earlier, NR does not face any threat from alternatives basically due to the reason that the only substitute for natural rubber is natural rubber. In the total global consumption of new rubber (i.e., natural rubber plus synthetic rubber), the relative share of NR is currently around 50% (47.2% in 2020) as against less than 30% in early 1970s. There is no reason to anticipate a fall in the relative share of NR in the next three decades at least.

Are environmental sustainability factors detrimental to NR cultivation?

Environmental considerations can only help NR to gain preference over synthetic rubber, polyurethane, and other materials in various applications because natural rubber is recognised as “an environment-friendly industrial raw material and renewable resource”. The following points establish such a view:

1. Rubber plantations purify atmosphere by absorbing CO₂ and releasing O₂. Based on scientific research undertaken by rubber research institutes in five countries, it is empirically proven that a hectare of rubber plantation annually sequesters as much as 30 tonnes of CO₂ from atmosphere which is near to that of the Amazonian base.
2. Rubber plantations are a good source of timber and bulk of this goes into furniture industry thereby protecting large extent of forests from being logged every year. Secondary branches of the rubber trees go into the fiber board industry and small twigs are used by the rural people as a source of firewood, both indirectly saving forests.
3. Rubber plantations contribute to sustainable soil productivity. Soil productivity has not deteriorated in any of the traditional rubber growing countries which have the history of growing rubber for more than 100 years and already completed 3-4 rubber plantation cycles. 
4. One of the key factors which had adversely affected food crops production in the last couple of years was climate change.  Rubber plantations offer solution to this as it helps balancing carbon level in atmosphere.  Rubber is no longer a mono crop.  Several food crops are grown along with rubber plants in all NR producing countries. The concept of raising rubber plantations as agro-forestry is being increasingly promoted across countries.  It is common among rubber farmers to maintain a portion of their land for other crops.  Moreover, rubber holdings provide sources of ancillary income through activities such as horticulture, fishery, honeybee, goat farming, etc. 
5. In all major natural rubber growing countries, rubber has been identified as a major tool of poverty alleviation and thus helping to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Are there any concerted efforts being taken up by organisations like ANRPC, IRSG or governments that subsidise NR cultivation?

Developmental activities such as promotion of new-planting and replanting in each country are undertaken by the respective governments only. Among the member governments of ANRPC, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Sri Lanka provide financial incentives to farmers to promote the cultivation of rubber. The governments usually mobilize the funds needed for the purpose from the same sector by levying a cess on the quantity of NR exported from the country or consumed within the country. The financial assistance cannot be termed as a ‘subsidy’ because the funds needed for the purposes are mobilized from the same sector.

Is it possible to have a globally uniform price structure for NR that can ensure interrupted supply?

In a market driven global economy, commodity prices are largely determined by the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true in the case of NR which is a strategic industrial raw material coming from more than 10 million smallholder farmers world over. It is not practical to regulate NR prices globally as it is a real challenge to bring together all major producing countries and consuming countries for such a common agenda on terms acceptable to all. (TT)

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How Dr Gerard Nijman de-mystified the ‘black magic’ of tyre engineering.

In the high-stakes, multi-billion-dollar world of automotive engineering, where the screeching captures the headlines, Dr Gerard Nijman focuses on the quiet, molecular drama happening just inches from the asphalt. To the uninitiated, a tyre is a simple black circle of rubber. To Nijman, it is a visco-elastic masterpiece, a complex soup of polymers, fillers and oils that behaves according to laws of physics that many in the industry once dismissed as ‘black magic’.

Recently, the Rubber Division of the American Chemical Society announced Dr Nijman as the recipient of the Fernley H. Banbury Award. It is one of the highest honours in the field, a recognition of a lifetime spent bridging the gap between the ‘black magic’ of the factory floor and the cold precision of laboratory rheology.

Now, two months after it was announced, I feel proud of being awarded and it is an acknowledgement of my contributions to rubber processing,” Dr Nijman says, reflecting on a career that has spanned nearly four decades. “However, if I consider the enormous lineup of previous winners, I still cannot realise that I am a part of it... I am probably still too humble to really enjoy it.”

THE FRIDAY EVENING CALL THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING

Dr Nijman’s journey into the world of elastomers didn’t begin with a lifelong passion for tyres, but rather with a fortuitous interruption. In 1987, he was deep into a PhD project focusing on molecular orientation in injection-moulded products. His trajectory seemed set for a traditional academic or specialised research path until a Friday evening phone call changed his life.

The caller was the P&O Manager of Vredestein, the Dutch tyre manufacturer. He was looking for a process engineer, specifically someone who understood the complexities of extrusion. For Dr Nijman, it was an opportunity to apply his theoretical knowledge to a massive industrial scale without abandoning his roots.

“For this position, I did not really have to leave my comfort zone, so I decided to join Vredestein on a 50 percent basis while I completed my PhD project,” Dr Nijman recalls. At the time, the industry’s understanding of material flow was rudimentary. The ‘gold standard’ was the Mooney viscosity test – a simple measurement that Nijman knew was insufficient for the high-speed, high-heat world of modern manufacturing.

“I was fascinated by rheology and especially how the material morphology was related to the processing behaviour. At Vredestein, the common understanding of Rheology was ‘Mooney viscosity’, but somehow, I could make them clear that understanding processing means that one must understand the (thermo-)rheological behaviour and morphological characteristics of rubber compound in much more detail,” he says.

SEEING THROUGH ‘SCIENTIFIC GLASSES’

Dr Nijman attributes much of his success to a trio of mentors who helped him synthesise his disparate skills. His PhD supervisor, Prof Ingen Housz, taught him the fundamental skill of ‘looking at industrial processes through scientific glasses’. It was this ability to analyse a complex, messy industrial problem until the root cause was exposed that set Dr Nijman apart.

At Vredestein, his first boss, Albert Dijks, built his confidence by handing him immense responsibility early on. Meanwhile, Kees Hettema taught him the art of the deal – how to negotiate with customers – and Matthias Sieverding of KraussMaffei Berstorff eventually gave him the reins to lead an entire business unit.

“What I learned from all of them is that, while believing in what you are doing, you should not be afraid of answering difficult questions from your stakeholders,” Dr Nijman notes. This philosophy allowed him to navigate the friction that often exists when a scientist tries to tell a factory veteran that their decades-old ‘gut feeling’ might be wrong.

BREAKING THE SPELL OF ‘BLACK MAGIC’

In the 1980s and 90s, rubber manufacturing was often viewed as more art than science. When a production line ran into trouble, solutions were often found through trial and error. “Suddenly, problems were solved without really knowing why,” Dr Nijman explains. “It was commonly called ‘black magic’.”

Dr Nijman became one of the first engineers to replace that magic with math. He realised that the complex technological hurdles of the industry – irregular shrinkage, surface defects and inconsistent quality – could be solved through a rigorous rheological approach.

His most transformative moment came during the ‘Green Tyre’ revolution of the early 90s. Michelin had just introduced silica-based compounds, which offered lower rolling resistance and better wet grip. While industry giants like Goodyear were still scrambling to adapt, the smaller Vredestein successfully implemented the technology.

The secret weapon was Nijman’s understanding of the microstructure. He recognised that silica compounds were a different beast entirely from the traditional carbon black mixtures. “We looked at the compounds’ processing behaviour by looking to the degree of freedom of the rubber molecules moving around in their microstructure,” he says.

By understanding how silica hindered or helped the ‘relaxation’ of rubber molecules after extrusion, Dr Nijman was able to control ‘extrudate swell’ – the tendency of rubber to expand like a sponge after being squeezed through a die. Without this scientific insight, manufacturers faced uncontrolled shrinkage, leading to tyres that simply didn’t fit the rim.

THE PORSCHE 911 CHALLENGE: WHEN THEORY MEETS THE ROAD

Perhaps the most gruelling test of Dr Nijman’s career wasn’t a tyre at all, but a piece of high-performance aerodynamics: the active front spoiler for the Porsche 911 Turbo. This rubber lip had to deploy at high speeds via air bellows and retract perfectly through its own elasticity once the car slowed down.

The stakes were astronomical. Porsche demanded ‘A1 surface quality’ – meaning the rubber had to be absolutely flawless, with zero visual defects and uncompromised functionality, all while meeting the strict Start of Production (SOP) deadlines of one of the world’s most iconic cars.

“Naming it a challenge was an understatement,” Dr Nijman admits. The project required a total immersion in the material’s behaviour. Dr Nijman describes his method as almost meditative: “I try to be part of the microstructure of the rubber compound on its way from rubber slab to the shape in which it is conveyed. Then I am able to ‘observe’ my surrounding and to ‘see’ what happens with the rubber molecules in their world of fillers, process oils and chemicals.”

THE DIGITAL TRAP: A WARNING TO THE NEXT GENERATION

As Dr Nijman prepares to retire at the end of this year, he looks at the current state of engineering with a mix of admiration and concern. Today’s engineers have access to powerful simulations and AI that Dr Nijman could only dream of in 1987. However, he warns that these tools can be a double-edged sword.

“Engineers tend to believe the results of such simulations are true without critical interpretation,” he says. “In the world of rubber, where chemistry and physics are constantly shifting during the heat of production, a computer model can only go so far. A rubber compound behaves truly visco-elastic. This is not something you can ignore.”

He has observed a shift where younger engineers prefer to solve problems via the Human-Machine Interface (HMI) rather than walking the shop floor. To Dr Nijman, the smell of the rubber and the heat of the extruder are essential data points that a laptop cannot capture. “Both must be done to successfully solve the production problem.”

A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: THE FINAL FRONTIER

Dr Nijman isn’t using his retirement to slow down; instead, he’s refocusing on the industry’s biggest challenge: sustainability. He believes the next decade of tyre technology won’t just be about grip or speed, but about energy.

“Both tyre manufacturers and extrusion line suppliers should focus more on how to save energy and how to recover heat,” he asserts. He points out a glaring blind spot in current research: while everyone wants ‘sustainable’ compounds, few are looking at reducing the viscosity of the rubber itself – the single biggest factor in how much energy a factory consumes to shape a product.

Reducing scrap and optimising heat recovery, he argues, will require a deeper cooperation between research institutes and manufacturers. “There is still a lot more to be explored scientifically,” he says.

THE LEGACY OF A ‘HUMBLE’ EXPERT

For those entering the field today, Dr Nijman’s advice is simple: love the work, or leave it. But if you stay, never stop asking ‘why’.

“Pursue to deeply understand the problem before you start solving it,” he counsels. “Rubber processing and tyre manufacturing is very exciting... especially if you love being on the shop floor and, at the same time, if you are able to continuously interpret your observations.”

As he prepares to accept the Banbury Award, Dr Nijman remains the same engineer who once spent his Friday nights thinking about molecular orientation. He has spent his career making the complex simple – so simple, in fact, that he measures his success by a unique metric.

“It helped me a lot to realise to explain very complex situations in a way that my mother-in-law would understand,” he says. “That is how I could realise breakthroughs.”

The ‘black magic’ of rubber is gone, replaced by the lifelong work of a man who decided to step out of his comfort zone and look at the world through scientific glasses. Dr Gerard Nijman didn’t just engineer tyres; he engineered a more precise, sustainable and understood future for the entire industry

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HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS has completed and commenced operation of a 17.5-MWp rooftop solar power installation at its facility in Vietnam’s Nhon Trach Industrial Park, located within Dong Nai Province. This marks a significant step in the company’s broader effort to reshape its Vietnam operations – its largest global manufacturing base for tyre cords and technical yarns – into what it terms a ‘Smart Green Factory’. By merging renewable energy infrastructure with digital energy management systems, developed in partnership with the energy IT specialist Nuriflex, the firm is positioning this site at the forefront of its transition towards becoming a global eco-friendly manufacturing hub.

A key element of this transformation is the deployment of an Internet of Things based energy management system, which allows for real-time oversight of electricity generation and equipment performance. This digital layer not only streamlines operational efficiency but also contributes to greater equipment reliability and overall productivity gains, ensuring that the integration of renewable energy delivers tangible improvements beyond simple power generation.

With further solar installations set to be completed by August, total rooftop capacity at the Nhon Trach site will reach 37.5 MWp. Once fully operational in the latter half of the year, HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS anticipates annual electricity cost savings exceeding KRW 6 billion (approximately USD 3.94 million), bolstering its cost competitiveness. The expansion is also expected to deliver meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, reinforcing the company’s long-term commitment to sustainable management practices.

Through advanced energy IoT solutions, the Vietnam subsidiary now systematically manages carbon reduction data generated from its solar power operations. This capability enables a more structured response to rising demands from major global customers – including Michelin, Bridgestone, Goodyear, Continental and Pirelli – for verified renewable energy usage and carbon emissions information. By strengthening its ESG performance across the supply chain, the company is leveraging its solar infrastructure and smart energy management not merely as facility investments but as strategic tools to enhance environmental responsibility and competitiveness in a market where sustainable value chains are increasingly essential.

“Starting with our Vietnam production base, we are simultaneously promoting renewable energy transition and energy efficiency improvements across our operations. By expanding solar power facilities, we will strengthen both cost competitiveness and ESG capabilities while proactively responding to the evolving requirements of our global customers,” said an official from HS HYOSUNG ADVANCED MATERIALS.

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The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has released its Monthly NR Statistical Report for February 2026, detailing a period of significant market activity influenced by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic changes and shifting supply-demand dynamics within the global natural rubber sector.

As per the report, global natural rubber production for 2026 is forecast to reach 15.324 million tonnes, a 2.2 percent increase from the 14.996 million tonnes recorded in 2025. February output alone is projected at 994,000 tonnes, marking a 3.4 percent year-on-year rise due to favourable weather and higher rubber prices. Despite this overall growth, production trends vary among member nations. While Thailand is expected to remain the top producer, Indonesia and Vietnam face short-term constraints from structural and agronomic issues. Meanwhile, Malaysia is advancing efforts to restore abandoned plantations, with the Rubber Production Incentive activated in Sarawak and Sabah and the Malaysian Rubber Board targeting the rehabilitation of 4,137 hectares of idle land in 2026.

Physical and futures markets saw notable price increases across major grades in February. In Kuala Lumpur, SMR-20 averaged USD 2.01 per kilogramme, a 5.13 percent monthly gain, while STR-20 in Bangkok rose 5.12 percent to USD 2.11 per kilogramme. Sheet rubber grades also strengthened, with RSS-3 increasing 7.84 percent to USD 2.35 per kilogramme and RSS-4 in Kottayam surging 10.38 percent to USD 2.34 per kilogramme. Centrifuged latex in Kuala Lumpur closed the month at USD 1.61 per kilogramme. Futures mirrored this firming trend, as the Shanghai Futures Exchange May 2026 contract averaged roughly 16,508 CNY (approximately USD 2,388) per tonne and the SGX contract averaged USD 1.92 per kilogramme, supported by strong demand and tightening supply expectations ahead of the seasonal low-yield period from February to May.

Crude oil volatility added further complexity, with Brent averaging USD 70.89 per barrel in February – up 6.43 percent from January – before spiking to approximately USD 104 per barrel in early March following military actions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for nearly 20 percent of global oil supply. This has introduced a risk premium with implications for synthetic rubber competitiveness and natural rubber demand. Currency shifts also play a role, as the Malaysian Ringgit appreciated modestly to 3.89 MYR per USD and the Thai Baht strengthened to around 31.08 THB per USD by late February, affecting trade competitiveness. Looking ahead, rising automotive production, especially of new energy vehicles in China, India and Southeast Asia, is expected to sustain demand and support prices. However, risks persist from US-China trade tensions, Middle East geopolitical instability, weather uncertainties during the low-yield season and currency fluctuations tied to US monetary policy, all of which could disrupt supply chains and export revenues.

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Tokyo Zairyo Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Zeon Corporation, marked a significant milestone in November 2025 by establishing a new branch office in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. Following the completion of all necessary preparations, this location has now commenced full-scale operations. The move represents a deliberate effort to broaden the company’s commercial reach across the Indian market while simultaneously constructing an organizational structure capable of responding with greater agility to the evolving and increasingly diverse requirements of its customers.

This southern expansion comes approximately 15 years after the company first established its Indian subsidiary, Tokyo Zairyo (India) Pvt. Ltd., with an office in Gurugram, Haryana, in 2011. By positioning a second office in Chennai, the firm now operates a coordinated network spanning the northern and southern regions of the country. Close collaboration between the two locations is intended to strengthen information services and enhance user support, leveraging both internal capabilities and external partnerships to better serve Japanese automotive parts manufacturers and processors operating throughout India.

Through this dual-office structure, Tokyo Zairyo is poised to advance its core business of purchasing and selling a broad spectrum of materials, including rubber, resins and elastomers. The synchronised operations in Gurugram and Chennai enable the company to deliver more responsive support, ensuring that clients across the Indian automotive supply chain benefit from efficient service and a reliable supply of essential materials.

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